What to Look for when Handicapping a Soccer Match

One of the main things you need to look at when analyzing a soccer match is a team’s home and away record. There are teams that are hard to beat at home, but not good away from their own home pitch. Look for teams like this, as well as patterns, as they tend to repeat themselves. Find teams that have a history of being tough at home even though they tend not to be in the top of a league table. A good example of this is Sienna in the Italian A League, as they are never are in the league race, but they are very hard to beat at home.

Recent Form

Always look at a team’s last few matches, 4 to 5 is a good rule of thumb, before you lay some green on a match. Soccer, just like many team sports, will have teams that are streaky. When you find a team on a good streak you may get a decent advantage over the bookie, even if the streaky team is playing a better team in the standings or they are on the road. This is easy to explain, as bookies will look more at standings and home field advantage more so then how the recent form is of a team.

Head to Head Records

Look at the past few games between the two teams on the match you want to wager on. Look for patterns, such as if one team dominates another or can’t seem to beat another. Many times two teams are even and want to avoid the loss against each other, as they may be big rivals, and the game will end in a draw often. Obviously, is easy to find a team that wins against another often with top teams always beating bottom feeders, but if you can find teams in the middle of the table that historically beat others in the middle of the table, you can get good odds.

Team Info

You need to look at current team news when you wager on a match. See if there are injuries, suspensions, new transfers and such. Other things to check for are if the manager will rest some starters or how the match will have an impact of the standings. Many times, bookies will overlook such news and that can give you an edge.

Team Motivation

Try to pinpoint teams that really need a win in a match and ones that really do not need to win. Motivation is a big factor is soccer. You can see this in many of the top leagues. For example, in two weeks Manchester United plays Liverpool and first place is at stake. This weekend each play against a team that is near the bottom of the league table. Many times, the teams will look ahead to the big match and not take care of business in this week’s match. Many teams near the bottom of the table that are fighting being relegated will play better at the end of the year. One good value bet can be betting in a bottom table team at the end of the season playing a middle table team. The team at the bottom has everything to lose and the middle team has nothing to lose. Which team do you think will be more motivated? Soccer bookies know this and you need to be careful.

Vital Out of League Matches

In soccer some of the biggest games are not league games, but cup games, such as the Champions League and the UEFA Cup. Teams have to alter their schedule when they qualify for major tournaments like these. For example, Inter Milan is playing bottom of Series A team Bologna this weekend and then on Wednesday they play Arsenal in a huge knock out game in the Champions League. In this case Inter should beat Bologna, but they may rest key players for the Arsenal match. Because of this, you may want to avoid betting on Inter against Bologna or even drop some coin on Bologna, as you will get good odds.