Don’t Look Past Important Factors When Handicapping NFL Games

The Playing Surface

The playing surface is something you have to look at when betting on NFL games, especially when certain teams are playing. A team with a lot of speed and a great offense, such as the Colts and the Rams of the late 90’s, have a major advantage when they play on turf, but are behind the 8-ball when playing on grass, especially in bad weather. Conversely a defensive team, such as the Steelers and Ravens are much better on grass in bad weather than when playing on turf in a dome. You have to look at the team’s strengths and how it will play out on the surface they play on.

Yes. Kickers are Legit Football Players

In football field position is huge. I mean how many times have you seen a coach forgo a 50-yard field goal in order to pin down the other team deep in their territory? Look at the stats of punters and kickers, as you should be wary of betting on teams that have a punter with a low per punt yardage average or a kicker with a low field goal percentage. Just because a player has no shoulder pads or a small facemask does not mean that they are not an important aspect of their team. Many times the game will come down to a field goal. You think the Patriots would have three Super Bowl rings if Adam Vinateri was not their field goal kicker? Probably not. Do not overlook the kicking game with handicapping NFL games.

Health of the Offensive Lineman

The health of offensive lineman is a major factor when handicapping NFL games, as the lineman are the guys in the trenches that protect the QB’s. If a lineman is injured it makes the QB vulnerable, which can lead to them being sacked or forcing a turnover. The lineman also open up holes for the RB and if they can’t open those holes the running game suffers. You have to check if a team’s Center is out when betting for or against a team. The Center affects the pocket penetration and the timing of the offense. When a team’s timing is off their offense will suffer. Take advantage of a team that has an offensive lineman that is injured, as they are a vital piece of a team’s offense.

The Dreaded Turnover

The turnover is kind of a strange statistic. It is not hard to spot players that are prone to the turnover. A couple of guys that turn the ball over often these days are RB Clinton Portis and QB Kurt Warner. Check out teams and players that turn the ball over, as a good overall team stat to check out is the +/- turnover ratio.

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