NFL Betting – Handicapping the Turnover

Handicapping games is not only about looking at the QB and RB stats to win cash. Obviously, football handicapping is a lot more then that. One aspect that you should look into when handicapping games is the turnover. No aspect of the game can change the direction of the game like a turnover. A turnover is a circumstance that cannot be predicted and it is a killer for football bettors. A costly turnover late in the game can make you from thinking about what you are going to do with your winning cash form thinking about what you could have done with it.

Turnovers Happen... Bet on it...

It is hard to imagine that people make bets without knowing such things a Kurt Warner having the propensity to cough up the ball or Clinton Portis fumbling when the Redskins are in the Red Zone. When beginning bettors see a turnover and then berate themselves from betting on that game they, many times, only have themselves to blame.

On average a team in the NFL has 12 to 13 drives every game. It has been shown that turnovers occur on around 15% of those drives. What this basically means is that for each team in a game there will be around 2 turnovers for each team. However, it is good news for any football bettor that only about 10% of turnovers in a NFL game are run back all the way for a TD. A study on football betting has shown that a turnover is equal to about 1.5 points.

Consider Turnovers, But Not Exclusively

Because of this fact it may make you think that the turnover is not really that big when thinking about the final outcome of the game. This is especially the case since both teams average about 2 turnovers a game. The point is that turnovers will not have a major effect on every single game. Obviously it will when the turnovers lead to points or it is at the end of a game. When the turnover ratio is about 2:1, which does not happen often, and you see that it is time to jump on that game and make a bet on the team that does not turn the ball over. You should check out a team’s turnover ratio when handicapping a game. This is more so the case when weather will be a factor, such as if the game calls for rain. When looking into a turnover ratio, you should also check out the stats of the RB and the QB and see they have fared in terms of holding onto the pigskin.

Turnovers are an important factor in any game and one you should look into when handicapping a NFL game.