NFL Betting – Know the Key Numbers

The quick stats

You probably already know that the number 3 is the most common margin of victory in the NFL. Often NFL games come down to the wire and the game is won by a field goal. It is also the case that most games that go into overtime are won by a field goal. In a study done on 4,000 NFL games in a 17 year period 3 was the most common margin coming in at 15.1% of the time. It should not be a shock that 7 came in second. However, what is surprising is that it was less then two times the 3 number at 7.1%. Coming in third was 6, which happened 6% of the time in the study. There are a couple other key numbers, which are 10 (5.9%) and 4 (5.8%).

Sportsbooks give you the Hook

It should be said again that when you know the key numbers it can really help you out since you can find out how sportsbooks want you to bet. It is obvious that sportsbooks are there to make money and they are good at doing it. If you bet with the sportsbooks and not against them it will increase your chances of winning money. Finding out how the books want you to bet, so you can bet with them and cash in!

You should try to stay away from laying the numbers of -2.5, -6.5, -9.5, and -3.5. These numbers are trying to bet spreads that look to be letting you win on the key numbers. Sportsbooks are smart, as they have to be they win a lot of my money! Their posting of these weird lines are because they think the opposite will occur.

You also want to stay away from betting lines like +3.5, +7.5, +10.5, and +4.5, as this is basically opposite of the attractive favorites. They make the underdogs look good! The sportsbook is not going to post an opening line and then you hit a key number with such ease. Why would the sportsbook allow you to put the odds in your favor?

Bodog Sportsbook

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