Soccer Pick (July 27): Chivas de Guadalajara vs. Universidad de Chile (Copa Libertadores)
2010 Copa Libertadores Semifinal: Chivas de Guadalajara vs. Universidad de Chile
Since Mexican teams were allowed to participate in the tournament in 1998, only one Mexican team has made it to the finals, when Cruz Azul lost to Boca Juniors on penalties in 2001.
Chivas have put themselves in position to become the second Mexican side to do so by dominating at home in the first leg of each of their knockout stage ties, and they’ll be looking to do the same tomorrow. In the round of 16, they beat Argentine side Velez Sarsfield 3-0 at home in the first leg and held on to win 3-2 on aggregate, and in the quarterfinals, they defeated Paraguayan side Libertad 3-0 at home in the first leg and once again held on to win 3-2 on aggregate.
Universidad de Chile are looking to become the first Chilean side to make the finals since 1993, and you’ve got to like their chances to get an early advantage, as they have done their damage away from home. In the round of 16 against Peruvian side Alianza Lima, they won the first leg 1-0. That proved to be vital, as in the second leg, Alianza Lima led 2-1 in the final minutes and looked to be on course to advance on away goals, until an 87th minute equalizer sent Universidad into the quarters. Then, in the quarters, Universidad shocked Brazilian side Flamengo 3-2 in the first leg in Brazil, and even though they lost 2-1 in the second leg at home, they advanced on away goals.
Universidad come as the most prolific side in their domestic league, with 45 goals scored in only 17 games. In those 17 league games, they’ve scored at least two goals 13 times. Thus far in the Copa Libertadores, they’ve scored two or more goals six times in 10 matches, and it’s very much worth noting that four of those times have been away from home.
Often enough, you’ll see teams playing it safe in the first leg in any two-legged knockout competition to avoid getting into a precarious position, but I see at least a few goals happening in the first leg.
Given how Chivas have gone on the attack in their home legs and how prolific Universidad have been, I look for this one to go over. Too much of a toss-up in my opinion to take a side here, but I’m definitely rolling with the over.
TOTAL PICK: Chivas de Guadalajara/Universidad de Chile OVER 2 ½ -120 (Bookmaker)
