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WTA Pilot Pen Tennis At Yale Quarterfinals: Maria Kirilenko vs. Dinara Safina
With Safina still very much on her way back after an extended layoff and not being close to 100% before and after, the odds will continue to be very favorable on the former #1 for a while, so now’s the time to make money on the Russian before she makes a leap in the rankings.
I came out a winner with plus odds on Safina for her first (vs. Andrea Petkovic) and second (vs. Nadia Petrova) round matches last week in Montreal, and after passing on her first two matches this week, I’m hopping back on the Safina train today.
She’s had to work hard in the first couple of rounds, needing three sets to dispatch French Open champion Francesca Schiavone in the first round and being taken to tiebreakers in both sets of her straight sets win over Daniela Hantuchova in the second round. However, it’s not how you win but that you win, and it’s also good for her confidence – and for bettors – for her to be pushed and to pass these kinds of tests.
Safina is 2-1 against her countrywoman in her career, but there’s an asterisk beside Kirilenko’s win, as it came via a Safina retirement (due to a back injury) in the fourth round of this year’s Australian Open. After that, Safina didn’t play again until Stuttgart in late April, and she’s only begun to find her form over the last few weeks.
Safina still has some ways to go before she’s back to where she was before her back issues, but get on her while the getting’s good. Kirilenko won’t go down easily, but I’m backing Safina to move on, even if she has to go to the distance to do it.
AUGUST 26 TENNIS PICK #2: DINARA SAFINA ML -105 (Bookmaker) vs. Maria Kirilenko
August 26th, 2010 9:16:12 AM UTC | Posted in Free Picks, Tennis by Griffdog | No Comments
WTA Pilot Pen Tennis At Yale Quarterfinals: Caroline Wozniacki vs. Flavia Pennetta
Wozniacki has a 4-0 career record against the Italian, and I expect the world #2 to make that 5-0 today.
Pennetta has played Wozniacki tough in both of the matches that they’ve played this year, but the Dane has come out on top both times, winning 7-6(5), 6-7(4), 6-2 in the fourth round of the French Open and claiming a 4-6, 6-3, 6-1 win last week in Montreal.
Wozniack’s comeback win over Pennetta last week came on the way to her second title in three weeks, as she’s claimed tournament wins in Copenhagen and Montreal, and she looks primed to make it three in four weeks, with the way that she’s playing right now.
That being said, Pennetta is playing very well at the moment herself, and I fully expect her to give Wozniacki all she has once again. This one could go to three sets, so be prepared to sweat it out, but the odds on the Woz are too good to pass up today, and I look for her to make good on them and advance to the semis.
AUGUST 26 TENNIS PICK #1: CAROLINE WOZNIACKI ML -120 (Bookmaker) vs. Flavia Pennetta
August 26th, 2010 8:53:01 AM UTC | Posted in Free Picks, Tennis by Griffdog | No Comments
ATP Allianz Open Gstaad 1st Round: Jeremy Chardy vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
- The two Frenchmen have met only once before, in the second round at Wimbledon, with Mathieu winning in straights, 6-3, 7-5, 7-6 (7-1).
- Neither player has played particularly well on clay this year, but Chardy comes into the tournament in slightly better form.
Mathieu is 1-9 this year on clay, with his only win coming against Dusan Lajovic, who’s currently ranked in the 400s.
Chardy, meanwhile, is 6-9 on clay this year, and he owns wins over Albert Montanes, Juan Monaco, Philipp Kohlschreiber, and Philipp Petzschner, all of whom are in the top 40.
- Last week in Hamburg, Chardy made it to the third round in Hamburg before he lost a tight match against a hot Jurgen Melzer, 7-5, 7-6 (7-4). On the other hand, Mathieu lost 1-6, 6-0, 6-3 to Pere Riba-Madrid in the first round.
JULY 27 TENNIS PICK #1: JEREMY CHARDY ML -165 (Bodog) vs. Paul-Henri Mathieu
July 26th, 2010 8:24:40 PM UTC | Posted in Free Picks, Tennis by Griffdog | No Comments
Rafael Nadal vs. Tomas Berdych
In the Men’s final on Sunday 2nd seed Rafael Nadal takes on 12th seed Tomas Berdych. Nadal is going for his second Wimbledon title and, really, his second in a row, as he had to sit out last year’s tournament due to an injury.
Berdych is making his very first Grand Slam finals appearance and this is the 28th Grand Slam he has played in, which is the second longest streak of playing in them making a first finals appearance.
One of the leading sportsbooks has Nadal as the big time favorite in this match posted at -300 with Berdych posted at +240. Speaking of betting on this match you can also check out set betting and many prop bets that you can make.
Nadal will be going for his 8th Grand Slam title in this match. The Spanish top-ranked player in the world has been on a roll on the grass courts at Wimbledon winning his last 13 matches there and 25 of his last 27 and the only losses were against Roger Federer in the finals in 2006 and 2007.
In their semifinals wins Nadal beat fan-favorite Andy Murray of Britain 6-4, 7-6 (6), 6-4 and Berdych beat Novak Djokovic of Serbia 6-3, 7-6 (9), 6-3.
2nd seed Nadal will likely not intimidate Berdych, as he took out top-seed Federer in the quarterfinals and 3rd seed Djokovic in the semifinals.
These players have played 10 times against each other in their respective careers with Nadal holding a 7-3 record including winning the last 6.
Berdych’s main strengths are his serve and his booming forehand. Nadal is one of the best returners in the game and Berdych cannot get rattled if Nadal’s return game is on. He will have to keep his composure and stay with his game, which is serving well and hitting bombs from the baseline. He cannot make too many unforced errors in this match or he will lose.
Nadal has a solid serve and all the shots and if he is on his game he will win. If he can play well against Berdych’s big serve it will give him a huge advantage in this match.
July 3rd, 2010 6:50:10 AM UTC | Posted in Sports, Sports Betting, Tennis by Jason Green | No Comments
We’ve already seen one big upset in the women’s singles final at the French Open – will there be an even bigger one in tomorrow’s men’s final?
Last year, Robin Soderling pulled off arguably the shock of the tennis season when he upset Rafael Nadal in the fourth round of the French Open, ending Nadal’s run as the master at Roland Garros.
Soderling went on to advance to the final, where he lost to Roger Federer, but he’s back in the final again. Along the way, Federer was one of his victims, as he came back from losing the first set to beat Federer in four sets in the quarterfinals.
Soderling’s getting pretty good at this spoiler thing, as he’s stood in the way of a Roger-Rafa Roland Garros final two years in a row, but he would really make his mark – and break a lot of bettors – if he turns the trick against Nadal again.
However, beating this Nadal will be much tougher than beating last year’s Nadal. Last year’s Nadal was a shell of years past, while this year’s Nadal, well, all you can say is ‘welcome back, Rafa!’ The closest he’s come to being challenged thus far at the French Open is having to deal with two tiebreakers in the quarterfinals against Nicolas Almagro and one in the third set in his semifinal win over the surprising Jurgen Melzer (a noteworthy storyline in its own right).
So is it more of a question of how quickly Rafa will get this over with, or does Soderling have a chance to shock Rafa again?
Of course he has a chance. Soderling beat him twice last year, and their other meeting was a 7-6, 7-5 win for Nadal, so the Swede can definitely hang and then some.
However, Nadal is on a mission, and that mission includes beating Soderling. I’m sure he would have enjoyed facing off with Federer again, but don’t think that he’s disappointed by the opportunity of getting to exact his revenge on the guy who took him out here last year.
Now, if you’re going to take the moneyline, the only reasonable option for most punters if they look at the French Open final odds is Soderling, purely based on value. It certainly worked if you took Schiavone today, so the low-risk, high-reward play could certainly work again with Soderling.
But if you’re on Nadal, I suggest you look at some of the set betting or total props that many books are offering. Soderling’s capable of doing what no one has done thus far and taking a set off of Nadal, so perhaps the over for the total could be appealing. There are also extremely favorable tennis odds on Nadal to win in straight sets or four sets, so splitting your money on either one of those is a better option than taking Nadal on the moneyline.
Whether it’s in three sets, four sets, or even five sets, I don’t see Nadal being denied. As impressive as Soderling’s run as been, Nadal is playing at that same level that propelled him to four straight French Open titles from 2005-08, and it will propel him to a fifth come tomorrow – that is, if the rains stay away.
FRENCH OPEN MEN’S SINGLES FINAL PICK #1: RAFAEL NADAL TO WIN 3 SETS TO 0 +130 (Bookmaker)
FRENCH OPEN MEN’S SINGLES FINAL PICK #2: NADAL/SODERLING UNDER 36 1/2 GAMES PLAYED +110 (Bookmaker)
FRENCH OPEN MEN’S SINGLES FINAL PICK #3: RAFAEL NADAL -5 1/2 +110 (Bookmaker) vs. Robin Soderling
FRENCH OPEN MEN’S SINGLES FINAL PICK #4: RAFAEL NADAL ML -365 (Bookmaker) vs. Robin Soderling
[Note: In the time that I've written this up, the moneyline at Bookmaker has gone from -380 to -365, so if you're going to hop on Soderling, the time's now. On the same token, the more action there is on Soderling, the more attractive the Nadal moneyline could be to those who are interested in going that route.]
June 5th, 2010 10:13:16 PM UTC | Posted in Free Picks, Tennis by Griffdog | No Comments
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