Sports Betting Blog - Free Expert Picks and Daily Game Analysis
Wagering-Sports » Blog » Sports » Basketball » College Basketball
Can Butler’s magical run culminate in a historic championship in their hometown, or will Duke lift the NCAA Tournament championship trophy for the fourth time under Coach K?
After 63 exciting games and many twists, turns, amazing upsets, and tight finishes, it all comes down to tonight, as Duke takes on Butler at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
After shocking Syracuse and Kansas State to reach their first-ever Final Four, Butler overcame a second-half drought to hold off Michigan State 52-50 on Saturday evening to advance to the championship game.
Butler shot only 28% (7 for 25) in the second half, and the Bulldogs made only one field goal in the final 12 minutes. That one field goal was huge, however, as Gordon Hayward scored a layup after an amazing offensive rebound/hustle play by Shawn Vanzant to put Butler up 50-46 with a minute and a half left.
From there, thanks to continued great defense and a couple of clutch free throws in the final seconds by Ronald Nored, the Bulldogs closed out a third straight win over a power conference opponent.
Tonight, they face a Duke team that thoroughly dominated West Virginia in a 78-57 win in their semifinal matchup. Duke’s big three of Scheyer (7-13 FG, 5-9 3PT, 23 points, six assists), Singler (7-16 FG, 4-9 3PT, 19 points, 6 assists), and Smith (8-16 FG, 3-5 3PT, 21 points, 9 rebounds, 5 assists) combined for 63 of Duke’s 78 points, and the Blue Devils hit on 13 of 25 three attempts (and 52.7% of their shots overall), all the while holding the Mountaineers to just 41.3% shooting.
The key tonight for Butler, obviously, is to slow down Duke’s star trio. All three have been fantastic all season and throughout the tournament, and if they keep it up, Butler doesn‘t have the firepower to keep it up.
Not only will forcing plenty of missed shots prove helpful for Butler’s title hopes, but forcing turnovers will as well. However, Duke did very little of that against West Virginia, registering 20 assists and only five turnovers.
A lot will also depend on how much Butler can get out of Matt Howard. After taking a couple of blows to the head against Michigan State, there was some doubt about whether or not Howard would be able to go tonight. But he has been cleared to play, and Butler will need him to keep Duke’s Brian Zoubek from being able to exert his will on the offensive and defensive boards.
Butler will certainly be buoyed by the atmosphere and having so many fans on their side, but Duke won’t be light on support either, and they won’t be fazed by the pressure or the Butler hometown factor. Remember, Elite Eight opponent Baylor had the geographical edge playing in Houston, and Duke overcame that one.
It’s hard to root or pick against Butler, and after seeing what they did against Syracuse, Kansas State, and Michigan State, you know that they can definitely hang with and beat Duke.
However, I don’t see the Blue Devils being denied of their fourth title in the last two decades. Butler will keep it close for a while and perhaps the whole way through, but in the end, it will be Duke who will be cutting down the nets tonight in Indy.
April 5th, 2010 3:53:55 PM UTC | Posted in College Basketball, Free Picks by Griffdog | No Comments
North Carolina Tar Heels (20-16) vs. Dayton Flyers (24-12)
On Thursday night in the Big Apple the North Carolina Tar Heels take on the Dayton Flyers in the NIT finals. The Tar Heels won the National Championship last year and even though they did not make it to the Big Dance they can end the season on a high note by winning the NIT.
Dayton had a .500 record in the Atlantic 10 conference, which cost them a shot at getting in the NCAA tournament, but they did win 24 games this season including beating such teams as Georgia Tech, Xavier, and Cincinnati.
At time of writing on Wednesday there are no odds posted for this game yet.
In their semifinals wins, which were both ugly games, North Carolina beat Rhode Island 68-67 in OT and Dayton beat Mississippi 68-63.
This season North Carolina is 13-20-1 ATS and Dayton is 18-15 ATS.
North Carolina’s offense averages 74.7 ppg and is led by F Deon Thompson (13.7 ppg) The Tar Heels do not have a strong backcourt, as their leading scorer at the guard position is Larry Drew II (8.4 ppg). In the win over Rhode Island Thomson had a big game going for 16 points and he grabbed 13 boards.
In the game against Rhode Island North Carolina only shot 35.8% from the floor and only had a 3-pt FG% of 12.5% (2/16) and they still won the game. The reason they won was their defense, which held Rhode Island to only 36.8%. The Tar Heels have to shoot the rock better in this game and also hold onto the rock, as in the Rhode Island game they committed 16 turnovers.
Dayton averages 70 ppg and they have a well-balanced offense with the three leading scorers of F Chris Wright (13.7 ppg), G/F Chris Johnson (11.8 ppg), and G Marcus Johnson (9 ppg). In the win over Ole Miss in the semis Chris Johnson had 22 points and 10 boards, but he only shot 5/14 from the field.
Just like the Tar Heels the Flyers won their semifinals game with their defense, as they only shot 33.3%, but held Ole Miss to 34.4% shooting.
Dayton is a solid rebounding team and Chris Johnson and Wright are each averaging around 7 rebounds per game. In the win over Ole Miss Dayton out-rebounded them 41-36. The Tar Heels’ F Deon Thompson is the big guy on the boards for UNC averaging 6.6 rpg, but he will need help from the other Tar Heels so the Flyers do not dominate the boards.
In a couple of trends for this game Dayton is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games and has an Over record of 5-2 in their last 7 games and North Carolina is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 neutral site games and has an Under record of 20-7 in their last 27 games.
March 31st, 2010 8:25:55 AM UTC | Posted in Basketball, College Basketball, Sports, Sports Betting by Jason Green | No Comments
Dayton Flyers (23-12) vs. Mississippi Rebels (24-10)
While there is a few days off before the Final 4 in the Big Dance a few teams that likely though they deserved an invite to the dance will be playing in the semifinals of the NIT Tournament in the Big Apple on Tuesday night. The first game is between the Dayton Flyers and Mississippi Rebels, who both had over 20 wins this season.
One of the leading sportsbooks has this game as a pick-em game with a total of 142.
In their quarterfinal wins Dayton beat Illinois 77-71 and Mississippi played a barnburner beating Texas Tech 90-87 in double OT.
Dayton was on the bubble with a month left in the season, but they lost 6 games late in the year, which cost them an invite to the NCAA tourney. However, they have looked solid in the NIT and have been winning with their solid defense.
Dayton has only given up an average of 62.1 ppg this season and they need their defense, as they only have 2 players averaging in double figures in F Chris Wright (13.8 ppg 7.1 rpg) and G/F Chris Johnson (11.5 ppg 6.8 rpg). In their win over Illinois in their last game this duo combined to score 28 points and grab 14 boards. If Ole Miss can play good D on these guys and keep them from scoring and dominating the boards they will be in good shape.
Ole Miss will have to figure out how to score on a solid Dayton defense that only allowed Illinois to shoot a FG% of 37.7%.
Mississippi averaged just over 78 ppg this season and they are led by their backcourt duo of guards Chris Warren (17.3 ppg) and Terrico White (15 ppg). These 2 did combine for 39 points in their win over Texas Tech, but they only shot 13/39 from the field. They will have to shoot better in this game or the Rebels may be in big trouble.
Even though Ole Miss won their game against Texas Tech they shot under 40% from the floor. However, they forced Tech into 18 turnovers. Dayton has to hold onto the rock in this game.
F Murphy Holloway (10.1 ppg 7.7 rpg) is the main inside guy for the Rebels and he pulled down 11 boards in the win over Texas Tech. He will have to be solid on the boards and his main task will be keeping Wright and Johnson off the glass.
Ole Miss has to play good perimeter defense in this game, as the Flyers can shoot lights out from deep and in their win over Illinois Dayton shot a 3-pt FG% of 44.4%.
Neither team will, obviously, will not get the recognition of making the Final 4, but the winner of this game will at least gain a little respect.
March 29th, 2010 4:34:38 PM UTC | Posted in Basketball, College Basketball, Sports, Sports Betting by Jason Green | No Comments
Baylor Bears (28-7) vs. Duke Blue Devils (32-5)
One of the leading sportsbooks has Duke as 5-point favorites in this game with a total of 138.5.
In a South Region match up for the right to get to the Final 4 the region’s top seed Duke Blue Devils face the 3rd seed Baylor Bears. Duke has gone through a drought, at least for them, as they have not made it to the Final 4 since 2004, but they will be playing a solid Baylor team that has a bit of a home court advantage since the game is in Houston and Baylor is located in the Dallas area.
Duke has played great defense in the Big Dance so far giving up 44 points, 53 points, and 57 points respectively in their first 3 games. Baylor is no slouch on defense either, as they held St. Mary’s to only 49 points in their 3rd round win.
This season Duke is 21-13-2 ATS and Baylor is 18-10 ATS.
In their 3rd round wins Duke beat Purdue 70-57 and Baylor beat St. Mary’s 72-49.
Baylor has a stellar backcourt duo of LaceDarius Dunn (19.5 ppg) and Tweety Carter (15.1 ppg). These 2 combined for 37 points and hit on 7 of their 13 3-point bombs in their win over St. Mary’s in the Sweet 16.
Baylor is not thin on the inside, as they have F/C Ekpe Udoh (13.8 ppg 9.7 rpg). Even though he had 11 rebounds in the win over St. Mary’s he only had 8 points on 4/13 shooting from the floor and he has to play better against Duke so the Blue Devils do not push up their D on perimeter to keep the Baylor guards from having big scoring games.
Duke really counts on the 3 players of guards Jon Scheyer (18.1 ppg) and Nolan Smith (17.2 ppg) and forward Kyle Singler (17.7 ppg) for most of their offense. These guys accounted for 57 of the 70 points they scored in the win over Purdue n the Sweet 16. Scheyer did have 18 points in the Purdue game, but he was only 5/15 from the field.
Duke does have a legit C in 7’1” Brian Zoubek (5.6 ppg) and even though he is not a big scoring threat the Bears need to keep him off the boards. In the win over Purdue he had 14 boards.
Baylor shot a 3-point FG% of 47.1% in their win over St. Mary’s so Duke has to play good perimeter defense and not allow the Bears to have wide open looks from deep.
If this game is a low scoring and defensive battle Duke has the advantage, but if it is a higher scoring affair then Baylor has the edge.
March 27th, 2010 6:26:35 PM UTC | Posted in Basketball, College Basketball, Sports Betting by Jason Green | No Comments
Any Chance for Cinderella Teams on Friday Night in the Big Dance?
Yesterday I wrote a blog, which you can check out here, with previews of the Cinderella teams playing on Thursday night but there are also a couple playing on Friday night in Northern Iowa and St. Mary’s. Let’s take a look to see how these teams match up with higher seeded teams.
Northern Iowa Panthers (30-4) vs. Michigan State Spartans (26-8)
One of the leading sportsbooks has MSU favored by 1.5 points in this game with a total of 117.
The hoops gods may be smiling on Northern Iowa, as they not only have the biggest upset in the Big Dance so far beating Kansas in the 2nd round, but now face a Michigan State team that lost its best player to injury in the 2nd round.
The Spartans beat Maryland by 2 points to advance to the Sweet 16, but they lost star G Kalin Lucas, who is the Spartans’ leading scorer and 2009 Big 10 Player of the Year, with an injury. His absence in the MSU lineup will hurt their run at a National Title.
In their 2nd round wins Michigan State beat Maryland 85-83 and Northern Iowa shocked Kansas beating them 69-67.
With Lucas out the Spartans will have to rely on their solid defense more and F Raymar Morgan (11.6 ppg) and G Durrell Summers (10.7 ppg) will have to pick up the scoring slack.
Even though the Spartans were 10/18 from beyond the 3-pt arc in the win over Maryland they played a sloppy game committing 18 turnovers and they cannot do that against a stellar defensive team like Northern Iowa.
Northern Iowa is only giving up an average of 55 ppg and they have a well-balanced offense with a guard, forward, and center all averaging in double figures led by C Jordan Eglseder (12 ppg 7.3 rpg). G Ali Farokhmanesh was the hero in the Kansas game going for 16 points and burying 4 of his 10 3-pt bombs including a late one, which iced the game.
Northern Iowa beat Kansas with their defense and key 3-pointers, as they only shot 40% from the field.
MSU killed Maryland on the boards and Northern Iowa was out-rebounded by Kansas so with Lucas out Michigan State will have to pound the ball inside and win the battle of the boards.
St. Mary’s Gaels (28-5) vs. Baylor Bears (27-7)
One of the leading sportsbooks has Baylor as 4-point favorites in this game with a total of 145.
St. Mary’s beat Richmond in the 1st round and then scored a HUGE upset in beating Villanova in the 2nd round. Baylor has not got much press this season, but they are a solid team that won a game in the Big Dance in the 1st round for the first time in 60 years.
In their 2nd round wins St. Mary’s beat Villanova 75-68 and Baylor used a late 8-1 run to beat Old Dominion 76-68.
St. Mary’s has 2 guards averaging in double figures and a center in Omar Samhan (21.5 ppg 10.9 rpg). Samhan is the big key in this game and he has been a monster in the NCAA tourney with 29 points and 12 boards in the 1st round win and 32 points and 7 boards in the 2nd round win.
Baylor is led by the backcourt duo of LaceDarius Dunn (19.4 ppg) and Tweety Carter (15.1 ppg). The Bears will need scoring from these guys and defense from
F/C Ekpe Udoh (13.9 ppg 9.7 rpg) and 7’ C Josh Lomers (6.7 ppg 3.7 rpg). This frontcourt duo will have to team up on Samhan and now allow the 6’11 C to score easy buckets in the paint or dominate the boards.
In the win over Villanova the Gaels played great on both ends of the court, as they shot 50% from the floor and held the Wildcats to only 36.2% shooting.
Baylor also shot well in their 2nd round win with a FG% of 51.9% and they hit on 8/20 of their 3-pointers.
Both Baylor and St. Mary’s can drain the 3, but it may be more important for St. Mary’s to hit the long ball, as if they can’t hit their outside shots then the Bears will pack the lane in order to contain Samhan.
Gaels’ guards Matthew Dellavedova and Mickey McConnell were a combined 5/11 from 3-pt land in the win over Villanova and they will have to shoot well again in this game.
March 24th, 2010 9:07:36 AM UTC | Posted in Basketball, College Basketball, Sports, Sports Betting by Jason Green | No Comments
Next »
