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Short and sweet. I normally avoid the Yankees lkke the plague, but value presents itself. Dallas Braden is hot, so was Trevor Cahill. In any event, CC Sabathia is a raging inferno to Braden’s campfire.
And so I will bite on the Yanks -1.5 at plus money (for now, at least), and if I get burned, I won’t be calling the wambulance.
Isn’t it a bit strange that the game I picked before this one shapes up to be a better pitchers’ duel than Lincecum vs. Jimenez?
This is still a must-see matchup, if for no other reason than to see who busts their slump first.
It makes for tough reading to see Lincecum’s numbers over his last five starts: 0-5,7.88 ERA. Ouch.
Jimenez has been better, but he’s winless over his last four starts, going 0-3. At one point, he looked set for 25 wins. Now 20 isn’t even a sure thing.
For some reason the Rockies are favprites, when, to be frank, it should be -110 for both sides.
There’s no real reason to bite on the Giants, especially when you add in how Lincecum has pitched against Colorado this season (not well).
But at some point, the Giants have to notice that they’re still well within touching distance of the Phillies in the wild card race and that the Padres are doing their best to give them a chance to make the NL West race interesting.
Perhaps last night’s 8th inning was where the light came on. In any event, I’ll bite on the team who’s good at home vs. the team who isn’t good on the road, especially when those tasty plus odds are involved. Giants ML it is.
One good thing about games at Arizona is that, no matter who’s pitching, the total will be inflated for three reasons: 1) the hitter-friendly ballpark, 2) what the D-Backs’ strikeout-prone band of ashers can do when they connect with pitches, and 3) the fact that Arizona’s bullpen isn’t particularly good (to put it mildly).
So, when presented with this matchup and a favorable total that, were this game at Petco Park, would be at least a run lower, if not more, I will gladly oblige.
Now, it is inevitable that both Mat Latos and Barry Enright will get shelled, and with that I just jinxed myself, but I’m aware of the risk, especially in the setting.
But when you have a second-year pitcher who’s pitching well beyond his 22 years (13 straight starts in which he hasn’t allowed more than two runs) and a rookie who’s not pitching like one (nine straight starts with three runor less allowed to start his career), I have plenty of reason to feel confident.
Under 8 for the game. Under 4 first five. And as an added tip, a bit on the D-Backs on the +1.5 and for the W. Good teams don’t often get swept by bad teams, but here’s a spot where the matchup presents an opportunity, especially the effect the first part of this sentence will have on the home team’s value.
Picking the Astros last night resulted in a winner, and it will tonight as well.
Sure, the Cardinals have an excellent chance to get the W everytime their ace takes the hill.
However, the Cards aren’t playing like winners right now, and that sets them up to get knocked back down by the ‘Stros again tonight.
If you got the Astros on the moneyline and/or runline earlier, kudos, as the line has dropped drastically over the last several hours. Dropping as it may be, both the ‘Stros moneyline and runline are both in my sights tonight.
There are around 30 games left in the MLB season and while the AL Wild Card race will likely be won by the Rays or Yankees, whoever does not win the AL East, since the Red Sox are 6.5 games back the NL race is still a hot one.
Here are the teams still in the NL race and their odds to win the NL Pennant at one of the leading sportsbooks.
Philadelphia Phillies (+250)
The Phillies are locked in a battle for the NL East crown, they are currently 2 games back of the Braves, and they are in the lead in the NL Wild Card with a slim 1.5 game lead over the San Francisco Giants. The Phillies had a golden opportunity to catch the Braves last week in NL East since Atlanta was swept in a series, but the Phillies could not take advantage getting swept at home by the lowly Houston Astros. They are only 5-5 in their last 10 games. However, this weekend they swept the NL West leading San Diego Padres and their pitching was stellar in the series only giving up 3 runs in 3 games. They will be tough to beat with the 1-2 punch of Roy Halliday and Roy Oswalt so if their offense can perform they will likely make the playoffs. The Phillies still have 3 games left against the Braves and those games are in Philadelphia.
San Francisco Giants (+600)
The Giants are 1.5 games back of the Phillies in the Wild Card race and they are 5-5 in their last 10 games and lost 2 of 3 at home to Philadelphia a week and a half ago. San Francisco has one of the best staff in the Majors, but you would not be able to tell that lately, as in their last 4 games, 3 of which they lost, they gave up a total of 36 runs. Reigning Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum has lost 5 straight starts and he is looking far from the dominant pitcher he has been the last 2 seasons. The offense is playing well, but unless the staff steps it up the Giants will be watching the playoffs from home. They do not have an easy home stretch, as they have to play the Colorado Rockies, who are chasing them in the Wild Card race, 6 times and the NL West leading Padres 4 more times.
St. Louis Cardinals (+800)
The Cardinals have lost 2 in a row and they are only 4-6 in their last 10 games. Albert Pujols has been stellar, but he needs help, especially from Matt Holliday. St. Louis may have to depend on the Wild Card to make the playoffs since they trail the Cincinnati Reds by 5 games in the NL Central. They have to finish the season on fire and hope the Phillies and Giants stumble since they do not face either team for the rest of the season.
Colorado Rockies (+2000)
Can the Rockies go on another miraculous run like they did in 2007 when they made the World Series? Colorado has won 6 of their last 10 games and they face the Giants in 3 very important games starting Monday. Their offense has been solid, but their pitching will have to perform in the last 30 or so games for the Rockies to make the post-season.
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