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Tournament time!

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March 11th, 2010 4:47:13 PM GMT+5 | Posted in Lifestyle by johngm | No Comments

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March 11th, 2010 1:37:39 AM GMT+5 | Posted in Lifestyle by johngm | No Comments

The number one story this week is the the conference tournaments in College basketball. be careful though, remember for some teams these tournaments mean nothing but a nice trophy. the big dance is yet to come.

The NCAA Tournament is so close that we can almost taste it. Before we can enjoy the perfect madness of March, though, we have to get through the rest of the conference tournaments, including all of the major conference tournaments. With the obvious exception of the Pac-10, where there doesn’t seem to be any good teams, those major conference tournaments aren’t likely to significantly change the perceptions of the teams at the top of the conferences – though they will settle some big bubble questions. More significantly, the conference tournaments offer yet another good betting opportunity for us to enjoy during the embarrassment of betting riches that is college basketball in March.

To make money on the conference tournaments, though, you have to approach them in a way that makes sense. Here are five things to keep in mind as you get ready to make the most of the conference tournaments:

Health – This one is a no-brainer. Before you make a bet on a team you need to make sure that that team is healthy so that the team you are betting on is the team you think you are betting on. This is something you would do for any other game, so why wouldn’t you do it here?

There is another aspect to health that you have to consider here, though. If a star player, or even a key role player, isn’t at full health, and the team is an NCAA Tournament lock, then there is a good chance – though not a certainty – that the player in question will be used sparingly to save himself for when it matters.

Injuries in conference tournaments, then, create an extra level of handicapping challenge, and require you to get inside the head of the coaching staff to guess what they are going to do and what that will mean.

What’s the point? – Winning the conference tournament is always a big accomplishment for any team, but unless a team needs the win to find their way into the NCAA Tournament field then no team would trade a conference tournament win for NCAA Tournament success. That means that you need to consider motivation in a big way in conference tournaments – an issue you rarely have to consider during the regular season.

Teams that already have their tournament berth and seeding secured may not go the extra mile to earn the win – unless the coach feels that pre-tournament momentum really matters. Teams that are on the bubble could be particularly motivated, and that could lead to improved play, or it could force them to tighten up and play below their expectations. A talented but underachieving team could be particularly dangerous as the tournament progresses if they know that a win is their only chance of dancing.

In short, motivation is crucial in handicapping conference tournaments, but you have to go beyond the immediately obvious and give some thought to what is likely to happen.

Going for the sweep – This is one of the most dangerous mistakes people make. If a team has already lost to their conference opponent twice in the regular season, then there is a school of thought that suggests that they are ripe to pull off the upset the third time around. It’s one of the oldest and most commonly heard adages in sports – that it’s very hard for a team to beat another three times in a row. There’s only one problem – it isn’t true. Historically, the team that has won the first two games is more likely to complete the sweep, but not at a high enough rate to be useful.

Location – This one has to be on the list, but it also doesn’t need to be talked about very much – I trust you can figure it out for yourself. If the tournament is played in the building of one of the teams in the conference then they probably have an edge over their opponents. If it’s in a neutral site then teams that play closer to that site could have more support than those that have to travel farther. Not rocket science, but important.

Be choosy – It absolutely makes sense to bet on the conference tournaments when they present you with real value. It’s equally important, though, to put the tournaments in perspective. These tournaments aren’t the main event – they are just the appetizer for what’s to come later in the month. The last thing you want to do is to damage your bankroll before the NCAA Tournament even starts.

From where I sit it only makes sense to be more cautious than normal in evaluating conference tournament opportunities to make absolutely sure that you have a good edge before taking the plunge.

The Big Ten is as top heavy of a conference as you will see in college basketball, and considering the format of the 11-team conference tournament that starts Wednesday, seeing an upset winner at Conseco Fieldhouse this week is unlikely.

With 11 teams, the top five seeds get a bye. No. 4 Wisconsin plays No. 5 Illinois in the only quarterfinal matchup that is already set. The top seeds, No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Purdue and No. 3 Michigan State, will get to play the winners of first round games, which even further stacks the deck in the favor of the big three in the conference in terms of getting an extra day off.
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The first round matchups are No. 8 Michigan vs. No. 9 Iowa. That game will kick start the tournament Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. EST and the winner will advance to play top-seed Ohio State. No. 7 Northwestern will face No. 10 Indiana in another first round game with the winner moving on to play Purdue and No. 6 Minnesota and last place Penn State will close out day out with their first round game for the right to play Michigan State.

The Buckeyes may be the top seed but they are not the odds on favorite. BetUS has Ohio State at +175 to win the conference while Michigan State is at +150. Purdue would likely be the favorite in this tournament if it had not lost Robbie Hummel to a torn ACL.

Purdue is still a tough team but considering the brackets (they would have to play Michigan State in all likelihood in the semifinals) and the injury, the Boilermakers do not have much value at +325. Without Hummel, Purdue has been able to win three of four, but the wins have come against the bottom of the basement and all have been too close for comfort as they are also 0-5 ATS as of late.

An interesting team to keep an eye on is long shot, Penn State. From a betting standpoint they are part of the field and they likely will not win the tournament but you can argue they are the hottest team in the conference right now. In the last two weeks they have won at Northwestern, at Michigan, beat Northwestern at home, stayed within two points of Michigan State on the road and stayed within four points of Purdue in their last game of the season.

After the 67-65 game in East Lansing that had Spartan fans sweating, you can bet Michigan State hopes Minnesota ends the Nittany Lions run in the first round. The odds for the field are +1800 and you get Indiana, Penn State and Iowa. For the price a small bet on the field couldn’t hurt. Think Georgia two years ago in the SEC Tournament.

Long shots that are not part of the field include Michigan and Northwestern both at +5000. With odds like that they would usually be worth a play, but considering the format of the conference tournament and the strength at the top it would be hard to imagine either of those teams getting through to the semifinals.

The play here is Ohio State at +175. They have the bye and the easiest path to the conference title game and more importantly, they are playing the best basketball right now. They are 10-1 SU in their last 11 games and their likely opponent in the Big Ten Championship Game is Michigan State, who Ohio State beat on the road 74-67 three weeks ago.

In the NBA, The Mavericks are the hottest team in the league with 11 consecutive wins. The Cavaliers are playing well; they won six straight before losing to Milwaukee in a game that LeBron James sat out to rest a sore ankle. Orlando seems to have regained its confidence, winning five straight games including Sunday’s home win against the Lakers. Speaking of the Lakers, they have lost three straight games – all on the road.

Here is a look at the hottest teams int he league in my opinion at least and some of the coldest teams in the league.

1. Dallas _ Could break Cavaliers’ season-high 13-game winning streak this week. Minnesota, New York, New Jersey and Chicago are the next four opponents.
2. Cleveland _ LeBron James’ sore ankle now the most studied and talked about subject in Cleveland.
3. Orlando –_ Beat Lakers with physical play and chippiness not usually associated with these guys. The edginess could be an intangible needed in the playoffs.
4. Denver _ Team and fans holding their collective breath while awaiting word on whether Kenyon Martin could be lost for season with a knee injury.
5. L.A. Lakers _ Pau Gasol calls out Kobe Bryant for taking too many shots and tweaks Phil Jackson on the triangle offense after loss to Orlando that extended losing streak to season-high three games.
6. Utah _ Mehmet Okur regaining his shooting touch and confidence after scoring at least 20 points in two consecutive games for the first time this season.
7. Boston _ Average age of team jumps up significantly after signing 37-year-old Michael Finley.
8. Portland _ Beatdown in Denver was expected. Playing well leading up to Denver game and team coming together at right time.
9. San Antonio _ Tony Parker’s injury woes continue after he breaks a bone in his right hand Saturday and he could be out up to four weeks. The injury comes at a time when the Spurs are finding their stride.
10. Phoenix _ Mild-mannered Channing Frye ejected and could be suspended after throwing a punch _ that missed badly – toward Indiana’s Danny Granger as Pacers accuse the Suns of cheap shots and dirty play.
11. Oklahoma City _ Kevin Durant said he’s prepared to sign a maximum five-year, $80 million contract extension this summer. Owner Clay Bennett, GM Sam Presti and coach Scott Brooks should clear their schedules July 1.
12. Atlanta _ Coach Mike Woodson tossing some tough love to his players: “Pick it up, and quit succumbing and going through the motions like you don’t want to be out there.”
13. Milwaukee _ Brandon Jennings, who threatened not to shoot the ball after criticism, rediscovers his shooting touch against Cleveland after coach Scott Skiles said Jennings’ attitude was “defeatist.”
14. Miami _ Wasn’t about to allow grumbling Rafer Alston to disrupt momentum of three-game winning streak. Alston goes MIA and AWOL for practice and game at Atlanta, and team promptly suspends him. “Skip to my Lou” will be skipping his way out of Miami.
15. Toronto _ Chris Bosh returns after seven-game absence, but Raptors lose to Philadelphia Sunday.
16. Memphis _ Great chance to snap their current eight-home home losing streak when New Jersey comes to town tonight.
17. Charlotte) _ This is a weird statistic, but one the Bobcats will take. They have won seven of the last nine games against the defending NBA champions Lakers.
18. Houston Luis Scola does imitation of Moses Malone with 25 points and 21 rebounds in win against Minnesota.
19. Chicago _ Trying to remain calm and not panic despite four consecutive losses, the second-longest of the season.
20. New Orleans _ Playoff hopes disintegrating on heels of four-game losing streak that has been punctuated by allowing at least 100 points in each game.
21. Philadelphia _ With seemingly daily episodes of the trials and tribulations of Allen Iverson, no one is talking about Eddie Jordan questioning himself and his ability as a coach. Then he questions the heart of his team.
22. Sacramento _ Former Rocket Carl Landry returns to Houston and haunts his former team with 22 points and 10 rebounds in win.
23. Washington_ Team posts 10 assists in loss to Milwaukee, just one more than Bucks’ Brandon Jennings has in the game.
24. L.A. Clippers_ Drew Gooden averaged 15.5 points and 10 rebounds a game in the last four games, but Clippers have lost three of those four games.
25. Golden State ) _ Reports say that Don Nelson no longer included in decision-making loop after he was surprised by news that management rejected that would have sent Monta Ellis to Memphis for O.J. Mayo and Hasheem Thabeet.
26. Indiana _ Officially joined the John Wall sweepstakes.
27. New York– Set NBA modern-day record after missing all 18 three-point attempts in the shocking
home loss to New Jersey. The brick-laying pushed the news of the embarrassing 20-point loss to the Nets to the background.
28. Detroit) _ Scary scene in Cleveland when Rodney Stuckey collapsed on the bench and was carted away on a stretcher Friday. He was released Saturday, but medical personnel still plan to conduct more tests on the guard.
29. New Jersey _ They won a game. That’s worth a brief departure from the basement.
30. Minnesota _ Have lost 11 of last 12 games