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Analyzing the US Open Draw

I am going to wait until the Everton game to update my record and make anymore free picks so I thought today would be a good day to really take a look at the draw for the mens and womens draw in the US Open. The big thing that stands out to me this year in the Open is the status of Nadal. You can’t talk about any major in tennis without mentioning Nadal as a favorite or certainly a major contender but this year that won’t be the case. It is a fascinating draw so lets start with a look at the mens side.

One major change of this years draw alot of tennis sites have been talking about was Nadals fall in the ranking and the chance Nadal and Federer could face before this years final. Nadal has slipped to #3 in the rankings because of injuries and Federer and Andy Murray have taken over the top two spots. This year it won’t happen though, as Nadal was placed in Murray’s half of the draw and can still face Federer in the finals.

Andy Murray is a player who has been in form this year and probably the best player who can compete with Federer at the Open. At the 2008 Open Murray got his best result making it into the final only to lose to Federer in straight sets. He also did great at Wimbledon this year.Murray beat wildcard entry Juan Carlos Ferrero in the quarterfinals before falling to sixth-seeded Roddick in the semifinals. This was the furthest Murray had ever reached at Wimbledon as he still seeks his first Major win. We could see Murray in the final. But to get there, Murray will likely have to get past Nadal. Murray beat Nadal in the semifinals of the 2008 US Open in a match played over two days because of rain. Before Nadal, Murray has another huge obstacle to overcome potentially in the quarterfinals in No. 6 Juan Martin del Potro, who reached the quarterfinals of the 2008 US Open. Andy Murray is certainly one to look at for any futures bet.

Another player to watch is Roddick but he won’t have it easy this year. Roddick’s draw is not good as as he could run into some trouble in the fourth round against either Tommy Haas or Fernando Verdasco. He would also have to get by Novak Djokovic in the quarters, whom he lost to in last year’s quarterfinals.

Futures odd supplied by Betus

Rot       To Win      Moneyline
1     Roger Federer         +110
2     Rafael Nadal         +500
3     Novak Djokovic         +1000
4     Andrew Murray         +250
5     Juan Martin Del Potro         +1000
6     Jo Wilfried Tsonga         +4000
7     Andy Roddick         +800
8     Nikolay Davydenko         +6500
11     David Ferrer         +12500
12     James Blake         +20000
13     Marat Safin         +30000
14     Tommy Haas         +12500
15     Gael Monfils         +20000
16     Gilles Simon         +15000

The womens draw is up for grabs as once again the WTA is wide open this year and anyone could win. It would be hard to pick a favorite from the top draw as the top half of the draw is incredibly difficult. On the top you have a a very formidable group of players which includes: Dinara Safina, Alisa Kleybanova, Elena Dementieva, Maria Sharapova, Nadia Petrova, and Svetalana Kuznetsova. You’ve also got Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic, Sabine Lisicki, Caroline Wozniacki and Jie Zheng. This is an extremely tough half of the draw and whoever comes out is going to have earned the right to be there.

On the bottom half of the draw the story revolves around two names: Williams and Clijsters. Both Serena and Venus find themselves in the bottom half with wild-card Kim Clijsters (2005 champion) is also in the draw. Serena, the defending champion, opens up with American Alexa Glatch, and could face Daniela Hantuchova in the fourth round and possibly the  extremely talented Vera Zvonareva in the quarters.

Venus and Clijsters could face in the fourth round, which should be a great match. The winner of that match could be looking at Victoria Azarenka in the quarters, and Azarenka will always pose a formidable task to overcome.

The Williams sisters have the best draw by far and are the clear favorites to see the last rounds of the Open. You would be hard pressed to find a better bet right now in tennis or any sport than to lay some money down on a Williams sister to win this event. Serena is +175 at Betus and Venus is at +450 and are the clear favorites to win this event in my opinion and are definitely worth a wager.

Futures odds supplied by Betus

Rot, To Win, Moneyline
1 Serena Williams +175
2 Maria Sharapova +900
3 Ana Ivanovic +3000
4 Jelena Jankovic +1200
5 Venus Williams +450
6 Dinara Safina +1000
7 Elena Dementieva +600
8 Svetlana Kuznetsova +1800
9 Agniezka Radwanska +8000
10 Victoria Azarenka +1200
11 Caroline Wozniacki +2500
12 Anna Chakvetadze +15000
13 Vera Zvonareva +4000
14 Nicole Vaidisova +25000
15 Alize Cornet +20000
16 Nadia Petrova +12500
17 Amelie Mauresmo +8000
18 Patty Schnyder +20000
19 Kim Clijsters +1200
20 Flavia Pennetta +3000
21 Sabine Lisicki +5000
22 Na Li +10000
23 Daniela Hantuchova +12500
24 Samantha Stosur +3000
25 Marion Bartoli +6500
27 Agnes Szavay +15000
28 Alisa Kleybanova +10000
29 Jie Zheng +12500
30 Sorana Cirstea +15000
31 Elena Vesnina +15000
32 Sybille Bammer +15000
33 Anna Chakvetadze +15000
34 Aleksandra Wozniak +15000

TV coverage begins on Monday at 11 and starts on ESPN 2 live at 1 o’clock.

Monday, August 31
11:00 am – 7:00 pm U.S. Open (M/W): Early rounds Tennis Channel – LIVE
1:00 pm – 6:00 pm U.S. Open (M/W): Early rounds ESPN2 – LIVE
7:00 pm – 11:00 pm U.S. Open (M/W): Early rounds ESPN2 – LIVE

August 30th, 2009 8:20:52 AM UTC | Posted in Sports, Tennis by johngm | 1 Comment

THE FRENCH OPEN

I wanted to take a break from my blogs about the Frank gambling bill and talk a little bit about the French Open. In what seems like a long four months after the Australian Open, the second major of the year is finally here. The big news this year of course is Nadal and his chances and on the womens side Justine Henin’s stunning retirement leaves this years open seemingly wide open with Serena Williams favored to win this year. Henins retirement left a major void in womens tennis, especially on clay where she was the three-time defending French Open champion. Lets take a look at some story lines and some players to watch this year

Of course the major story this year will be Nadal, the reigning champion at three of the four majors and someone who has been absolutely dominant on clay. He’s already generally considered the best clay-court player of all time and maybe one of the of the greatest players of all time all by the time he is reaching his mid-20s. If Nadal were to win the U.S. Open, where he’s never made it past the semifinals, he would complete his career Grand Slam.

The question on everyones mind including my own, was Madrid a fluke? Roger Federer is the reason why, for the second time in five years, Nadal enters the French Open fresh off a loss. Federer beat Nadal in straight sets in the Madrid final last Sunday, though the significance of Federers victory is still open to debate after seeing Nadal barely escape Djokovic .Most people say that Nadal was tired from a four-plus-hour semifinal win over Novak Djokovic the previous day, and that the high altitude was to Federer’s advantage.

One question that really I have trouble answering and this year on clay it is more apparent is what has happened to American Tennis. Outside of the Williams sisters the outlook is pretty grim. It’s been 10 years since Andre Agassi’s five-set victory over Andrei Medvedev in 1999, the last time any American male won in Paris. That U.S. title drought isn’t going to come to an end this year with the likes of Nadal and the rest in the field. The situation is much better on the womens side with Serena Williams and Venus though. When Justine Henin was in the field it was different tournament at Roland Garros and Serena Williams is seven years removed from her one Roland Garros title, but she looks to be the lady to beat this year.

I will have more blogs and picks as the tournament progresses and check out our odds page for Tennis. Summer is a great time to make money on tennis.

Have a great weekend and a great week.

Cheers

May 24th, 2009 1:51:59 PM UTC | Posted in Sports Betting, Tennis by johngm | No Comments

Nba Playoff situation

What a mess in the NBA. The NHL already has its playoff schedule and TV schedule out, futures are already posted for the NHL playoffs, and the NBA playoffs are still up in the air and seedings still undecided on the last night of the regular season.

Especially in the Western Conference, where seven teams are still jockeying for the seven seedings below the Los Angeles Lakers, the clear winners of the West.

In a trio of key games Wednesday night, the New Orleans Hornets, trying to lock up the six seed in the West, visit the San Antonio Spurs, who are looking to hold on to a top-four seeding and the first-round home-court advantage that comes with it (8pm Eastern). In Dallas, the Mavericks, who are in a fight with the Hornets and Utah Jazz to avoid playing LA in the first round of the playoffs, host the Houston Rockets, who can still finish anywhere from second to fifth in the West (8pm Eastern, ESPN). And later on in Portland, the Trail Blazers, still hoping to host a first-round series, take on the Denver Nuggets, who can win the number two seed with a win (10:30pm Eastern, ESPN).

The West’s potential playoff seedings are basically an incredible mess. The eight playoff teams have been finalized for about a week now, but other than the top-seeded Lakers, every other seed is still up for grabs. Denver, champs of the Northwest Division, has clinched at least the three seed, and can earn the two seed with a win at Portland on Wednesday. If the Rockets win and Nuggets lose, Houston gets the two spot. The Spurs catch the four seed with a win on Wednesday, but can fall to the five spot with a loss and a Portland victory.

A Dallas win on Wednesday gives the Mavs the six seed in the West. But maybe more important for Dallas and New Orleans is Tuesday’s game in Los Angeles matching the eighth-place Jazz vs. the Lakers (10:30pm Eastern, TNT). A Los Angeles win locks Utah into the eight spot, and allows both the Mavericks and Hornets to avoid the Lakers in the first round.

I hope this clears the playoff situation up for everyone.  LOL.  Keep an eye out guys for these games tonight and jump on those future bets.  Utilizing home court advantage in your futures and series bets are the way to go during the playoffs.

Cheers

April 14th, 2009 6:53:17 PM UTC | Posted in Sports by johngm | No Comments