NFL Sunday Patriots vs. Colts
What a great Sunday we have in store as we may be witnessing a preview of the AFC title game as The Colts meet the Patriots in a battle of the two best teams in the AFC in my opinion. During the 2000’s at leas,t you can always count on the Colts and Patriots at or near the top of the AFC and this year is no different.
Peyton Manning and Indianapolis are cruising right now, and they are the last unbeaten team in the AFC. Tom Brady and New England have a two-game lead in the AFC East and on a mission after missing the playoffs last season. All signs point to their meeting Sunday in Indy being an AFC Championship preview.
I don’t want anyone to get me wrong, I really don’t like this game to wager on because I believe it is an absolute toss up, but for viewing purposes this is the game to watch. The teams meet again on Sunday night at Lucas Oil Stadium in the latest installment of what has really turned into a great rivalry.
The Colts (8-0, 5-3 ATS) come into the showdown as one of the league’s two undefeated teams, but it’s the Patriots (6-2, 4-4 ATS) that have been playing better football lately.
A win’s a win, unless you’re a betting man, in which case Indianapolis’ last two victories left you holding the bag. The Colts escaped in their 20-17 edging of the Texans (+7.5) at Lucas Oil Stadium on Sunday, one week after they needed a trick play to get past the 49ers (+13) 18-14 at home.
Indy led Houston 13-3 at the half, but the Texans fought back to take the lead on Steve Slaton’s 1-yard touchdown dive only seconds into the fourth quarter. Joseph Addai’s 2-yard TD run with 7:11 remaining was the difference, as the Colts watched Texans kicker Kris Brown miss a 42-yard field goal as time expired before they slipped out the side door.
Addai finished with 112 all-purpose yards and two scores in the second straight week in which he saved Indianapolis – if not Colts backers. Addai’s fourth-quarter touchdown pass to Reggie Wayne lifted Indy past San Francisco in a game in which the Colts had no business covering the 13-point spread .
Still, Indianapolis finds a way to win games in every way possible, with 17 consecutive regular season victories Straight up dating back to last season. The only team that’s put together a better run? New England, which won a record 21 in a row from 2006-08. If there’s a foil for the Colts, it’s the Pats, who are seeing the bulk of public action on the early 3-point number but I expect that to change closer to game time.
New England has hit its stride since falling 20-17 in overtime at Denver (+3) on October 11. The Patriots are 3-0 (2-1 ATS) since then, and have outscored opponents 121-24 during the mini-streak. New England’s 59-0 win over Tennessee skews the sample size, but that doesn’t change the fact that Tom Brady and Randy Moss have re-found the chemistry that made them so successful two years ago.
Brady used a 71-yard TD strike to Moss late in the third quarter to get the Pats past the Dolphins (+10.5) 27-17 on Sunday. Moss put up 147 yards receiving to go along with his score, while Brady went 25-of-37 for 332 yards with a touchdown and an interception for New England. Looks like the Brady-Moss connection is back in business.
The Colts need a special game from Peyton Manning, because their depleted secondary is hard pressed to stop the Patriots’ second-ranked passing attack (295.0 yards per game). Safety Bon Sanders (biceps) is out for the season, and fellow defensive backs Kelvin Hayden (knee) and Marlin Jackson (knee) are both out indefinitely. It could be a high-scoring game on Sunday night.
New England matches up well with Indy’s offense. The Pats are third in scoring defense (14.4 PPG) behind a pass defense that ranks fifth in the NFL (179.4 YPG), and their struggles against the run won’t be an issue against the pass-happy Colts. Indianapolis rolls into Sunday 29th in rushing (85.4 YPG). Because of some of these factors, I think the Patriots are a sharp play as 3-point underdogs but I am just going to sit back and watch this game.
Odds supplied by Betus
New England Patriots +2½ -110 +115
Indianapolis Colts -2½ -110 -135
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