Free NHL Picks – Thursday, November 19
What comes up must come down, right? After having so many winning nights with my NHL picks, I had to know that there’d come a night when everything went against me.
That was the case last night, as I notched a big fat zero in the win column with yesterday’s quintet of picks, thanks to two third-period meltdowns, a late third-period winner, one of the league’s best home teams losing at home, and two of the league’s highest scoring teams deciding to not, well, score much.
Alas, I’m not going to beat myself up about it, because such nights are inevitable, even for the best of the best, and I’m looking to bounce back immediately with the usual Thursday night mega-card. We’ve got eight games on tonight’s NHL slate, and I’ve got at least one pick for every one of them.
NHL PICKS RECORD
Yesterday: 0-5
Season-to-date: 40-31-1
TODAY’S NHL PICKS
CAROLINA vs. Toronto
ATLANTA vs. Boston
Ottawa/Pittsburgh OVER 5 ½
NASHVILLE vs. New Jersey
Nashville/New Jersey UNDER 5
St. Louis/Phoenix UNDER 5
Dallas/Columbus OVER 5 ½
CALGARY vs. Chicago
Calgary/Chicago UNDER 5 ½
ANAHEIM vs. Tampa Bay
Carolina Hurricanes vs. Toronto Maple Leafs
Why I’m picking CAROLINA -105: Nothing like a matchup between two of the league’s worst teams, right? The Hurricanes finally broke their 14-game winless streak with a win over Minnesota on Sunday, but they immediately went back to losing with a 3-2 shootout loss at Montreal on Tuesday.
However, the ‘Canes have been far more competitive recently after racking up quite a few bad losses, and they should be able to outlast a Toronto team that’s every bit as bad as they are. The Maple Leafs won in Raleigh two weeks ago and followed that with a win over Detroit the next day, but since then, Toronto has dropped four in a row.
Atlanta Thrashers vs. Boston Bruins
Why I’m picking ATLANTA -115: The Thrashers come in on a roll, having won three in a row at home and four in a row overall. The streak should continue tonight against the Bruins, who are just 2-3-2 on the road this season and come in with only three wins in their last ten games.
Ottawa Senators vs. Pittsburgh Penguins
Why I’m picking OVER 5 ½: Given the path I usually follow, I’d take the under here, as the goal total has been five or less in five of the Senators’ last six home games, but I’m going in the opposite direction tonight.
The Penguins have scored 11 goals in the two games since Evgeni Malkin returned from injury, and the scoring shouldn’t slow down tonight in Ottawa, where they’ve scored three or more goals in nine of their last 11 trips (regular season and postseason) and netted four times in a 4-1 win in Ottawa on Oct. 12.
The Penguins haven’t exactly been a fortress on their own end on the road, as they’ve allowed three or more goals in seven of 10 road games, so I like Ottawa’s chances to light the lamp at least a few times tonight as well.
Nashville Predators vs. New Jersey Devils
Why I’m picking NASHVILLE EVEN: Call it a risk perhaps, given that the Devils have been the league’s best road team this season (9-1-0 mark – just lost their first road game on Tuesday at Philadelphia).
However, it’s a calculated risk. The Predators come in hot themselves, having won three games in a row and seven of their last nine overall, and they‘ve also won four home games in a row after struggling at home early on.
Why I’m picking UNDER 5: The total has been five or less in eight of the Devils’ 10 road games and in 15 of their 19 games this season, and New Jersey comes into tonight leading the league in goals against average (2.11).
As for the home team, the numbers are favorable as well. The total has been five or less in 12 of Nashville’s 19 games, and it’s been five or less in five of their eight home games.
St. Louis Blues vs. Phoenix Coyotes
Why I’m picking UNDER 5: Both of their previous meetings this season have been lower-scoring games, with Phoenix taking a 3-2 win in overtime on Oct. 15 and a 2-0 win in St. Louis on Oct. 29.
I like that to be the case once again tonight. Perhaps this will be the night when the Blues have their once-every-week-or-two scoring outburst, but the numbers certainly don’t favor it. St. Louis has scored two or less goals in seven of their last eight games and in 12 of their 18 games this season, and as such, it’s not surprising that the goal total has been five or less in 12 of their games this season.
Phoenix hasn’t been as tight defensively this month as they were in the season’s opening month, but the numbers are still very much in favor of a low-scoring night in St. Louis. The total has been five or less in seven of Phoenix’s 10 road games, and it’s been five or less in 15 of their 21 games this season.
Dallas Stars vs. Columbus Blue Jackets
Why I’m picking OVER 5 ½: Another case where I’m going against a trend, as the total has been less than six in each of the Stars’ six games this month and in five of their eight home games.
However, I’m liking my chances for a goal-filled game tonight, with the Blue Jackets coming into town. Though the total numbers have been nice to see this month if you’re a fan of the under, Dallas has allowed three or more goals in six of nine home games and in 13 of 20 overall this season.
Scoring has been a little on the inconsistent side for the Stars, but this is a team that can score goals in bunches from time to time, and tonight should be one of those nights. The total has been seven or more in eight of Columbus’ nine road games, and they’ve given up at least three goals in all but one road game as well.
Calgary Flames vs. Chicago Blackhawks
Why I’m picking CHICAGO +115: The Blackhawks have been anything but spectacular on the road thus far this season (2-3-1) in comparison to how they’ve played at home (10-2-1), but they should be looking forward to tonight, as Calgary’s a place where they’ve had a lot of good fortune in the last several seasons.
Chicago closed out last season’s Western Conference quarterfinal series between these two in Game 6 in Calgary, and the Blackhawks have also won their last five regular season games in Calgary.
The Flames haven’t exactly been excellent at home recently either, dropping three of their last four home games.
Why I’m picking UNDER 5 ½: Their meeting in Chicago was quite the goalfest (a 6-5 OT win for the Blackhawks), but I’m going with the under here. The total has been five or less in five of Chicago’s six road games and in 12 of their 19 games this season, and it’s been five or less in Calgary’s last four home games and in eight of their last nine games overall.
Anaheim Ducks vs. Tampa Bay Lightning
Why I’m picking ANAHEIM -145: I’m still waiting on the Ducks to wake up and play like the team that shocked San Jose and took Detroit to seven in last season’s playoffs, but it hasn’t happened quite yet. In fact, it’s been quite the opposite, as the Ducks come in 0-3-1 in their last four games and 3-10-2 after a respectable 3-2-1 start.
But after a winless road trip, the Ducks are back home, where they’ve won their last two games and three of their last four. The Lightning may be 3-0-1 in their last four road games and 4-0-2 in their last six games overall, but I’m liking the home team here.
Dont Agree? Let us Know. We love hearing your thoughts and picks!
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