MLB Free Pick (10/8) – Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Colorado Rockies Rockies (National League Division Series Game 2 – PHI Leads 1-0)
Pitching Matchup: Cole Hamels vs. Aaron Cook
There were a few grumbles about the decision Phillies manager Charlie Manuel made to start midseason acquisition Cliff Lee over 2008 World Series MVP Cole Hamels for Wednesday’s Game 1, but it turned out to be the right call, as Lee pitched a gem to lead the Phillies to a 5-1 win and a 1-0 lead in the series.
Today, Hamels takes the hill for the Phillies looking to give the defending World Series champs a 2-0 lead heading to Colorado, and Manuel will be hoping that Hamels looks more like the pitcher who went 4-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five postseason starts last October and less like the one that was streaky all season long en route to posting a 10-11 record and a 4.32 ERA.
When Hamels was on this season, he was on. He had two stretches in which he went 3-0, and he started September by going 3-1 with a 1.84 ERA in his first four starts of the month.
However, when he wasn’t on, it wouldn’t be an issue of having one bad start and shaking it off the next time around, but often following one bad start with another one. Hamels gave up four or more runs in 13 of 32 starts, and he posted only 16 quality starts. That’s in comparison to 2008, when 23 of his 33 starts were quality starts, and he allowed four or more runs in only 10 starts, and that doesn’t include a postseason in which all five of his starts were quality starts.
It’s not exactly in his favor either that he finished the season 0-2 with a 7.22 ERA in his last three starts, and I haven’t even mentioned that he’s lost both of his career starts against Colorado, including his lone start in the 2007 playoffs – which also marks his lone postseason defeat to this point. Hamels started Game 3 of the NLDS at home against the Rockies, and a three-run second inning was enough to doom the Phillies in a 4-2 loss and hand Colorado a three-game sweep.
However, despite all of the negatives above, there’s no doubting what Hamels is capable of, and if the Mr. Hyde version of Hamels shows up today, then it means good things for the Phillies.
In any event, the pressure is on Cook to avoid running into the same kind of trouble Ubaldo Jimenez ran into in the fifth and sixth in Game 1, when a 0-0 game turned into a commanding 5-0 lead.
Cook has pitched against the Phillies twice this season, with an 0-1 mark and a 4.91 ERA in those two starts. He started in Philadelphia on August 6, allowing three runs on seven hits and being saddled with the loss in a 3-1 Phillies win.
He comes into the postseason on a nice run, having come back strong after missing a month due to injury. He tossed five scoreless innings in a 2-1 win over St. Louis on September 25, and then last Thursday, he allowed only one run and four hits in eight innings in a 9-2 win over Milwaukee that clinched the NL wild card for Colorado.
Though there’s no surprise that MLB odds have the Phillies as a pretty solid favorite in this matchup, I have legitimate concerns about which Hamels will show up, so color me a little nervous about today’s pick.
However, I think the start of the postseason will turn the light back on for Hamels, and he’ll play a big role in putting the Phillies within a win of returning to the NLCS.
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