College Football Preview & Pick – South Florida vs. West Virginia
South Florida’s Big East title hopes may have gone down the drain with two crushing losses in the last two weeks, but even if the Bulls are no longer a serious contender to win the conference, they can at least play spoiler to West Virginia’s title hopes with an upset of the Mountaineers.
Just two weeks ago, South Florida was 5-0 and in position to establish themselves as a prime Big East title contender, even without injured QB Matt Grothe. But, the Bulls lost 34-17 at home to Cincinnati, and last week, USF went to Pittsburgh and fell behind 31-7 at halftime in an eventual 41-14 loss.
A win over West Virginia would get South Florida back on the winning track with an off-week ahead next weekend, and it’d be a repeat of what happened the last time the Mountaineers make the trek south. In 2007, the #18 Bulls upset the #5 Mountaineers 21-13, forcing six turnovers and knocking Pat White out of the game in the second quarter.
This time around, the Mountaineers come in 6-1 overall and 2-0 in the Big East. Showdowns against fellow unbeatens Cincinnati and Pittsburgh await in November, but they certainly can’t overlook tonight’s meeting with a foe that has become a prime conference rival in a short time.
To have a chance to win tonight, South Florida’s defense must step up tonight, especially against the run. The Bulls allowed only 147 rushing yards in a three-game stretch against Charleston Southern, Florida State, and Syracuse, but they allowed Cincinnati to run for 189 yards – 132 by backup QB Zach Collaros – and Pittsburgh to run for 214.
USF’s suspect run defense makes West Virginia’s Noel Devine the man to watch in this one. Devine has run for 912 yards and 10 touchdowns this season, and as he showed last week against Connecticut, you can stop him for much of the game, but if he can get loose for one or two big runs, it can make all the difference. Devine had a scamper of more than 60 yards to set up a go-ahead touchdown in the third quarter, and after the Huskies had taken a 24-21 lead late in the game, Devine ran 56 yards for what proved to be the game-winning score in a 28-24 win.
Devine has run for more than 100 yards five times this season, and he has at least one rushing touchdown in every game this season, so it’s a must for the Bulls to find a way to slow him down and neutralize the running threat posed by QB Jarrett Brown. When Brown filled in for the injured White in the 2007 loss to USF, he was 11 for 20 for 149 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions, but he ran for 61 yards on 15 carries, and he has 250 yards and two touchdowns on the ground this season.
The Bulls need to get something going against a West Virginia defense that allowed 378 passing yards and 501 totals.asp”title=”betting totals” >total yards against Connecticut. It’s safe to say that if the Mountaineers can slow down QB B.J. Daniels through the air, they’ll have a lot of the job done. In the first three games in which he received extended playing time, Daniels threw for 571 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions, but in the last two games, he’s throw for only 262 yards with one touchdown and four picks. Daniels, like Brown, can make a lot of things happen on the ground, but if he can be forced into mistakes through the air, that will limit the impact of his ground gains.
To take some heat off of Daniels, the running backs must get involved. The offense runs through Daniels both through the air and on the ground, but the Bulls do have three capable rushers in Moise Plancher, Lindsey Lamar, and Mike Ford, who have combined for 10 rushing scores this season and a collective 4.6 yards per carry average.
Despite their recent slump, South Florida is still a very dangerous team, and a win tonight shouldn’t be considered as much of an upset as the wins in 2006 and 2007 were. However, with the way that the Bulls have struggled recently to move the ball well offensively and stop the run defensively, West Virginia comes in with a clear advantage.
Griff’s Guess: Both teams can be a little mistake-prone, so this one might well not be too pretty to watch. But whether it’s a war of attrition or an exciting offensive display, I expect Devine to have another big day and the Mountaineers to leave Tampa with a victory. Take the Mountaineers and the points.
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