College Football Free Pick (10/9): Nevada (-10 1/2) vs. Louisiana Tech
If there was some frustration for Nevada about opening the season with three straight losses, albeit to tough competition as it was (at Notre Dame, at Colorado State, vs. Missouri), it’d be a bit of an understatement to say that Nevada took it out on in-state rival UNLV last week.
The Wolfpack allowed UNLV to come back from an early 14-0 deficit to tie the game at 21 going into halftime, but in the second half, the rout was on in Reno. After the teams swapped touchdowns in the third quarter, Nevada took control to the tune of 35 unanswered points over the final 15:50 to
Nevada racked up 773 yards of total offense, with 559 of those yards coming on the ground. That’s right, 559.
Having one running back run for 170+ yards in a game is a good feat, but the Wolfpack had three players rack up more than 170 yards rushing. Leading the way was freshman Mike Ball, who had only one carry in the first three games but got his chance to shine with Vai Taua sidelined. Ball more than took advantage of the opportunity, running for 184 yards on 15 carries. Five of those carries ended in celebrations, with Ball scoring touchdowns of 10, 1, 32, 4, and 89 yards.
Along with Ball’s monster day, QB Colin Kaepernick ran for 173 yards on 17 carries, and he also went 15 of 18 for 214 yards and two touchdowns through the air, and Luke Lippincott ran for 170 yards and a touchdown on 19 carries.
That spells a lot of trouble for Louisiana Tech as they take on the Wolfpack tonight in Reno in what will be Nevada’s WAC opener.
Nevada leads the all-time series 5-4, and the Wolfpack have won four in a row over Louisiana Tech, including a come-from-behind 35-31 win in Ruston last November 29. The last two meetings in Reno have seen Nevada come away with 42-0 and 37-27 wins, and they’re a heavy favorite to make it three in a row at home and five in a row overall.
The Bulldogs produced a fine defensive performance to keep Hawaii out of the end zone last week in a 27-6 win in Ruston, and that included allowing -7 rushing yards to the Warriors.
However, you have to consider the opponent and their pass, pass, pass offense when taking that number into consideration, and prior to that, La. Tech had allowed 794 rushing yards in their first three games (an average of nearly 265 yards per game), with Auburn rushing for 301 yards in a 37-13 win and Navy racking up 290 yards on the ground in a 27-14 win.
Louisiana Tech has their own talented running back in Daniel Porter, who broke out of an early-season slump by rushing for 160 yards and two touchdowns against Hawaii, but plain and simple, the Bulldogs need to slow down Nevada’s powerful pistol attack to have a chance in this one.
However, even though Nevada will allow some points, I don’t see Louisiana Tech being able to keep up, and I like the Wolfpack to cover at -10 1/2 and win by two touchdowns.
Bonus Pick #1: The latest college football odds have the over/under at 58, and I say take the over. The total has been more than 58 in eight of the nine previous meetings (the only one that wasn’t was a 42-0 Nevada win in 2006), and with two defenses that aren’t exactly the toughest you’ll see, the over looks very attractive tonight.
Bonus Pick #2: The winner of each game in the series has scored no less than 35 points (Nevada, last year), and Nevada has averaged more than 40 points in their four straight wins over the Bulldogs. So, if you’re riding with Nevada tonight, you might want to place an extra bet on them to hit the over on their point total.
And for what it’s worth, the loser has scored at least 27 points in six of the nine meetings as well, and with Nevada allowing no less than 28 points in their first four games thus far, going with the over on Louisiana Tech’s total is a play worth making.
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