MLB Free Picks – Thursday, September 17
MUST SEE MATCHUPS
BOSTON RED SOX v. Los Angeles Angels
Pitching Matchup: Josh Beckett v. Ervin Santana
Here’s what you need to know: Beckett has a 6.98 ERA in his last six starts, but in his last start, he allowed only one run in five innings in a rain-shortened game against Tampa Bay on Saturday to earn his first win in a month, so he could be turning the corner just in time. He’s 9-1 at home this season as well, so it’s no wonder that the Red Sox are solid favorites with him on the hill.
Santana has a nice 6-3 mark on the road this season, but the Angels have lost in each of his last four starts, scoring only seven runs total in those games, and that would make it pretty hard to consider picking him, even if someone other than Beckett was on the hill for the Red Sox.
Detroit Tigers v. KANSAS CITY ROYALS
Pitching Matchup: Edwin Jackson v. Zack Greinke
Here’s what you need to know: In his last four starts, Greinke is 2-0 with an 0.84 ERA, and in four starts against the Tigers this season, he’s 2-1 with a 1.16 ERA and only 19 hits allowed in 31 innings.
Of course, run support is what could keep him from the Cy Young, and though the Royals have averaged a solid 5.4 runs in going 7-3 in their last 10 games,
Jackson is 7-1 in 13 home starts this season, but he allowed five runs in his last home start against the Blue Jays on Saturday, and he has an ERA of 5.51 in his last four starts. With the way that Greinke is pitching, more of the same from Jackson today could see the Royals earn their second series win over the Tigers in a little over a week. In fact, that’s exactly what I see happening.
SURE BETS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES v. Washington Nationals
Pitching Matchup: Cole Hamels v. Ross Detwiler
Here’s what you need to know: Hamels is 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA in his last two home starts, so he’s in good form heading into a start against a team that he’s posted a 2.02 ERA against in 14 career starts (6-3 record in those starts).
Even better that Detwiler is 0-5 this season in 11 appearances (10 starts), is 0-3 with an 8.57 ERA on the road this season, and in his previous start against the Phils, allowed five runs and 10 hits in only four innings of work. He did make a nice return to the majors by pitching two scoreless innings against the Marlins last week, but he’s still going to have to wait to get that first major league win.
ATLANTA BRAVES v. New York Mets
Pitching Matchup: Jair Jurrjens v. Nelson Figueroa
Here’s what you need to know: If Jurrjens had far better run support than he has had through the season, he’d be a serious Cy Young candidate, but alas, the Braves have scored three runs or less in 17 of his 30 starts this season, and 10 of his 30 starts have seen the Braves lose by one or two runs.
However, one of the exceptions has been the Mets. The Braves have scored 26 runs in Jurrjens’ last two starts against the Mets, 49 in the six games that Jurrjens has started against the Mets in his career, and 11 in each of his two career home starts against the Mets. No wonder he’s 2-0 in three starts against the Mets this season and 4-1 against the Mets in his career.
Figueroa has pitched fairly well in his second stint as a starter this season, but I’m going with the Braves to win their seventh straight. Their bats have been on during their win streak (38 runs scored), and with Jurrjens on the hill against a team that he’s had a lot of success against, I’m liking back-to-back sweeps for the Braves heading into a big home series against the NL-East leading Phillies.
GOOD BETS
CHICAGO CUBS v. Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching Matchup: Randy Wells v. Dave Bush
Here’s what you need to know: Bush won at Arizona on Saturday, but prior to that win, he’d been 0-4 with an 11.30 ERA in his previous five road starts. He’s 0-3 in six career road starts against the Cubs, and he’s 1-7 overall in 13 career starts against the Cubs.
Even though Wells is only 2-4 in his last seven starts, I’m leaning towards him and the Cubs in this one given Bush’s lack of success against the Cubs and Wells’ solid 6-4 home mark this season. Run support has been an issue in some of his starts, but the Cubs have averaged 6.3 runs in their last nine games (in which they’re 7-2), so that’s certainly an encouraging statistic for Wells.
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