MLB Free Picks – Monday, September 28
(Picks In Bold)
MUST SEE MATCHUPS
DETROIT TIGERS vs. Minnesota Twins
Pitching Matchup: Rick Porcello vs. Nick Blackburn
Here’s what you need to know: Porcello is on a nice roll down the stretch, going 4-1 with a 3.32 ERA in his last six starts. He’s only 1-2 with a 3.71 ERA in three starts against the Twins this season, but in his lone home start against Minnesota this season, he tossed seven shutout innings and allowed only four hits in a 9-0 win on May 5.
Blackburn comes in off the heels of back-to-back very, very good starts, notching consecutive wins to even his season record at 11-11, but he’s just 4-7 on the road this season, and he was the pitcher on the receiving end of the beatdown in Detroit on May 5 (3.1 IP, 8 hits, 9 runs, 6 earned runs), where he’s 0-3 with an ERA of 7.50 in four career appearances.
SURE BETS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES vs. Houston Astros
Pitching Matchup: Cole Hamels vs. Yorman Bazardo
Here’s what you need to know: Well, besides the 11.92 ERA that Bazardo has as a starter, Hamels is 3-0 with an 0.77 ERA in his last three home starts and 7-3 with an ERA of 3.29 in 15 home starts this season. He did suffer a loss at Houston three weeks ago (6 IP, 8 hits, 4 runs in a 4-3 loss), but home = a much better Hamels.
BOSTON RED SOX vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Pitching Matchup: Josh Beckett vs. Scott Richmond
Here’s what you need to know: Beckett has a 10.45 ERA in two starts against the Blue Jays this season, but he was bailed out by the Red Sox bats both times, so even if he doesn’t produce his fifth straight quality start, you’ve got to like his chances to get win #17 of the season, which could clinch the AL wild card if the Angels beat the Rangers tonight (more on that below).
It doesn’t hurt Beckett and Boston that Richmond is 1-3 with a 10.07 ERA in five September starts and is 1-6 with a 7.90 ERA in his last 10 appearances.
GOOD BETS
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. LOS ANGELES DODGERS
Pitching Matchup: Zach Duke vs. Hiroki Kuroda
Here’s what you need to know: Duke is 0-4 with an 8.62 ERA in his last four starts, and he’s just 1-6 with a 6.28 ERA in his last nine starts over August and September. He pitched well against the Dodgers in a start in L.A. on the 15tth, allowing just two runs and four hits and striking out seven (with no walks) in seven innings, but his bullpen blew what would’ve been a win for him in an eventual 5-4 loss.
It doesn’t particularly help his cause either that run support hasn’t been great when he has pitched well, and things don’t bode too well for the Pirates on that end tonight. Kuroda is 3-0 with a 1.35 ERA in his last three starts, 5-1 with a 2.35 ERA in his last seven starts, and 6-2 with a 3.34 ERA on the road this season, numbers that tilt this one strongly in the Dodgers’ favor.
UPSET SPECiALS
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Pitching Matchup: Ervin Santana vs. Tommy Hunter
Here’s what you need to know: Hunter has a 5.34 ERA in five September starts, but thanks to excellent run support (with the exception of the lone loss, which came against the Angels 10 days ago), he’s 3-1 this month. Meanwhile, Santana is 0-2 in his last six starts, thanks in large part to poor run support (the Angels have scored 16 runs in those six games).
The Rangers are also 10-5 against the Angels this season, including a 4-2 mark in Anaheim, so they’ll be up for this one, especially because a win would keep their flickering playoff hopes alive for at least one more day. The latest MLB odds have the Rangers at +155 in this one, and that just looks too good to pass up.
Dont Agree? Let us Know. We love hearing your thoughts and picks!
Loading ...
