Free Sports Picks – Tuesday, September 1
To make up for not posting picks on Monday (sincerest apologies for that), I’ve packed today’s picks post full of selections.
Can I hit on all eight? That might be too much to ask, but a man can dream, right?
Anyhow, whether I hit on all eight or on five or six, I’m feeling good about my chances to come out looking good when the day’s done, and so should you.
Remember, you can get the latest lines on all of these games and the rest of the day’s action (including the ongoing US Open) with our betting odds section, and as always, good luck and wager responsibly!
MUST SEE MATCHUPS
PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES v. San Francisco Giants
Pitching Matchup: Cole Hamels v. Jonathan Sanchez
Hamels had a forgettable August, going 0-3 with a 4.91 ERA, but he ended the month by pitching eight scoreless innings against the Pirates on Wednesday. As streaky as he’s been this season, that could be a sign that he’s about to get on a hot streak.
Sanchez is only 2-8 on the road this season, but those two wins have come in his last three road starts, in which he’s 2-0 with a 0.94 ERA.
Hamels was hammered at San Francisco on August 2, allowing seven runs (six earned) and 10 hits in five innings, but this start should be much, much better. For what it‘s worth, Hamels is 3-1 with a 1.75 ERA in five career September home starts and 6-3 in September overall, so it’s a pretty opportune time for him to have had his best start in nearly three months.
SURE BETS
COLORADO ROCKIES v. New York Mets
Pitching Matchup: Jorge de la Rosa v. Mike Pelfrey
De la Rosa lost at home for the first time in more than two months on Thursday, but he still posted a quality start (7 IP, 8 hits, 3 runs) and is still an outstanding 12-3 over the last three months since an 0-6 start.
Pelfrey had a stellar outing against the Rockies at home on July 28, pitching six shutout innings in a 6-1 win. But along with being 1-3 in August, Pelfrey is 0-4 with an 8.95 ERA in his last four road starts. In those four starts, the Mets scored only eight runs, but even their bats can generate something at Coors Field, right? Right?
Either way, I’m going with the home team in this one, all the way.
DETROIT TIGERS v. Cleveland Indians
Pitching Matchup: Edwin Jackson v. Carlos Carrasco
Carrasco is making his first major league start, and the signs aren’t positive that he’ll be able to net a debut win.
Jackson has been excellent at home all season, going 6-1 with a 2.92 ERA in 11 starts. He’s 6-0 in his last eight home starts, and all eight have been quality starts for Jackson and victories for the Tigers. The All-Star is also 2-0 with a 1.50 ERA in three starts against the Indians this season.
I’ll give you one guess as to who I’m going with in this game, and here’s a hint: It’s not the Indians.
LOS ANGELES DODGERS v. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup: Vicente Padilla v. Yusmeiro Petit
Despite posting a 2-3 record, Petit has pitched very, very well on the road recently, posting a 1.50 ERA in his last five road starts.
However, I’m going with the Dodgers in this one. Padilla about as well as one can when their starting debut with a team comes in Coors Field (5 IP, 6 hits, 1 run), and his lone start against the Diamondbacks this season was a gem (7 IP, 6 hits, 1 run).
The Dodgers only have a 4-4 mark this season after an extra-inning loss, but overall, they’ve been an excellent rebound team, going 35-18 this season after losses, so I’m backing them bounce back from last night’s disappointment with their 79th win of the season.
SAN DIEGO PADRES v. Washington Nationals
Pitching Matchup: Clayton Richard (7-4, 4.79 ERA) v. J.D. Martin (3-3, 4.85 ERA)
Richard is 2-0 with a 2.10 ERA in three home starts with the Padres, and I like that run to continue tonight against Martin and the Nationals.
UPSET SPECIALS
TAMPA BAY RAYS v. Boston Red Sox
Pitching Matchup: Andy Sonnanstine v. Jon Lester
I’m not really sold on the Red Sox’ ability to take care of business on the road against better teams, but I’m welcome to them proving me wrong. But they haven‘t yet, so I‘m picking the Rays in this one.
Sonnanstine is making his first major league start since June 25, but over the last two seasons (the relevant ones for the Rays), he’s 2-0 with a 1.73 ERA in four starts against the Red Sox (three regular season, one postseason).
Lester, meanwhile, is winless in his last five starts against the Rays (three this season, two in last year’s American League Championship Series) after going 3-0 against Tampa Bay in the 2008 regular season.
St. Louis Cardinals v. MILWAUKEE BREWERS
Pitching Matchup: Joel Pineiro v. Braden Looper
Pineiro is 7-0 with a 2.65 ERA in his last 10 starts, and one of those starts was a complete-game, three-hit gem at Milwaukee on July 9 in a 3-1 win, but he’s due for a loss sooner or later, right?
Looper, who was a Cardinal for the previous three seasons before moving to their NL Central rivals after last season, won in his return to St. Louis on May 18, allowing only three hits and one earned run (three runs total) in six innings in an 8-4 win.
Bonus Pick: Texas Rangers (Dustin Nippert) v. Toronto Blue Jays (Marc Rzepczynski) – The Blue Jays and Rangers combined for 28 runs and 28 hits last night in a slugfest that the Jays won 18-10, but I’m going with the under on the run line in the first game of today’s doubleheader. The run total has been nine or less in seven of Nippert’s eight starts and in nine of Rzepczynski’s starts, so runs might be a little harder to come by than last night.
Dont Agree? Let us Know. We love hearing your thoughts and picks!
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