Free Sports Picks – Friday, September 4
Yesterday didn’t go nearly as well as I’d have liked, as I went only 2-3 with Thursday’s free picks.
However, I’m looking to bounce back with today’s quintet of picks and go into a big college football weekend on a winning note. As always, good luck and wager responsibly!
MUST SEE MATCHUPS
TAMPA BAY RAYS v. Detroit Tigers
Pitching Matchup: Jeff Niemann v. Justin Verlander
Verlander is 3-0 in his last three road starts, and they haven’t been against cupcakes either, as they’ve come against the Rangers, Red Sox, and Angels. He’s making a nice push for the AL Cy Young going into the final stretch of the season, but that push will get a little derailed today.
Two-thirds of Niemann’s starts this season (16 of 24), but when he’s started at home, he’s been mostly excellent. He’s 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA at home this season, and in his last six home starts, he’s 5-0 with a 2.20 ERA, has tossed two shutouts, and pitched into or through the eighth in all of them. He hasn’t been too shabby overall either over the last few months, going 8-1 in his last 14 starts.
SURE BETS
ATLANTA BRAVES v. Cincinnati Reds
Pitching Matchup: Derek Lowe v. Bronson Arroyo
Lowe is 6-1 in his last 10 starts, and with the exception of a start against the Mets when it just completely fell apart in the fourth inning of a game that the Braves had control of early, he’s been getting the job done. Overall, he’s 6-2 at home this season and hasn’t lost at home in his last six starts, with his last home loss coming against the Yankees on June 25.
Arroyo is only 1-3 in his last seven starts, but that hasn’t been for a lack of him trying, as he’s posted a 2.28 ERA and seven straight quality starts and has pitched at least seven innings in the last six. However, he’s only 1-6 in his last eight home starts after starting the season 4-0 on the road. His last two starts against the Braves have been pretty bad as well, as he allowed nine runs in 5.2 innings in Cincinnati in April and surrendered seven runs in just an inning and a third in his last start in Atlanta in May of last year
GOOD BETS
Baltimore Orioles v. TEXAS RANGERS
Pitching Matchup: Chris Tillman v. Scott Feldman
To say that Feldman has been solid on the road this season would be an understatement. In 12 road starts, Feldman is 10-1 with a 2.75 ERA. By comparison, he’s only 4-3 with a 4.56 ERA at home.
Since taking his lone road loss of the season, at San Francisco on June 19, he’s 6-0 with a 2.08 ERA in his last six road starts. So, even though I take road teams nearly as often as I do home teams, I’m feeling pretty darn good about the Rangers today with how much of a stud that Feldman has been on the road this season.
Tulane v. TULSA
Tulsa has a new quarterback and a new offensive coordinator, but even if there are some bumps early on, it’s going to be a winning start for Todd Graham’s team.
Since the two teams started meeting on a regular basis in 2005, Tulsa has won all four meetings by a combined score of 181-49, with every win coming by a margin of at least 24 points.
The game may well be a little closer than last year’s 56-7 blowout, but I don’t see Tulsa having any issues covering the two-touchdown spread and beating the Green Wave for a fifth straight year. College football odds have the over/under at 64, and while I expect plenty of points to be on the scoreboard when all’s said and done, I’d advise holding off on betting on the over/under until the second half.
UPSET SPECIALS
WASHINGTON NATIONALS v. Florida Marlins
Pitching Matchup: Garrett Mock v. Sean West
West has pitched well since returning from Triple-A in early August, going 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA in five starts. That lone loss came against the Astros on the road, and he hasn’t pitched nearly as well on the road (1-3, 5.75 ERA) as he has at home (5-2, 3.26 ERA).
Besides West’s shaky road numbers, Mock has pitched pretty solidly recently, going 3-2 in his last five starts and 32 strikeouts in 28.2 innings. The two losses came against the Rockies and Cardinals, and he pitched very well in both of those outings, so he’s certainly found his groove as a starter. I’d have expected to see today’s MLB odds have the Nationals a little less of an underdog, even if they are the Nationals, but that’ll work out well for you when Mock comes out a winner.
Dont Agree? Let us Know. We love hearing your thoughts and picks!
Loading ...
