Today’s MLB Picks – Tuesday, August 4
I had to take a day off to lick my wounds after falling flat with Sunday’s MLB picks, but I’m back today to rebound…or perhaps take another kicking.
As is always the case, I’m confident in these picks, but I can’t control what happens when the teams take the field, so all I can say is good luck, wager responsibly, and have fun!
MUST-SEE MATCHUPS
Sunday: 0-2 – Sabathia did struggle against the White Sox, but Buehrle struggled even more, allowing the Yankees to salvage the finale of their series in Chicago. In my other pick, which was the Braves-Dodgers Sunday night showdown, Billingsley (two hits allowed, nine strikeouts in five innings) and Jurrjens (four runs, 10 hits allowed in five innings) pitched the opposite of how each had been pitching recently. Can’t win ’em all, right?
Toronto Blue Jays (-150) v. New York Yankees (+135)
Pitching Matchup: Roy Halladay (11-4, 2.68 ERA) v. Andy Pettitte (8-6, 4.51 ERA)
Neither of these stellar southpaws has been getting the results lately – Halladay posting a 1-3 mark in his five starts since coming off the disabled list, while Pettite is 0-3 in his last five starts.
But with all of the trade talk and the cloud of uncertainty no longer a distraction for the remainder of the season, we should see Halladay being Halladay tonight against the Yankees. He didn’t pitch well at Yankee Stadium on July 4, when he allowed five runs on nine hits (three of those hits being home runs), but in his previous home start against the Yankees this season, he had a complete-game, five-hit gem (one run allowed, five strikeouts, no walks). I’m backing the Jays here.
Tampa Bay Rays (-118) v. Boston Red Sox (+108)
Pitching Matchup: Matt Garza (7-8, 3.69 ERA) v. Jon Lester (9-7, 3.90 ERA)
Lester has gotten shelled in his two starts against the Rays this season, but that was when he was in the midst of a 3-5 start to the season. Since then, he’s 6-2 with a 2.18 ERA in his last 11 starts (9 of those being quality starts), with 86 strikeouts and 23 walks in 74.2 innings.
Garza has had his struggles this season, but he’s 2-0 against the Red Sox this season, including a one-hit, 10-strikeout, complete-game masterpiece at home on April 30. Run support has been an issue for him lately though, and with the way the Red Sox have been hitting in the last week, the least bit of trouble could spell another loss for Garza.
This one’s a tough one to pick, but I’m going to go with Lester and the surging Sox bats to take this one tonight.
TODAY’S SURE BETS
Sunday: 0-1 – I don’t think too many people bargained on Astros rookie Bud Norris pitching seven shutout innings against the Cardinals in his first major league start, so I’m not alone.
Philadelphia Phillies (-140) v. Colorado Rockies (+130)
Pitching Matchup: Jamie Moyer (10-7, 5.32 ERA) v. Jason Hammel (5-6, 4.66 ERA)
Moyer is 6-1 in his last seven starts, and in that stretch, he’s alternated excellent outings with average/sub-par outings. In his last start, he tossed 6.2 scoreless innings, which would mean tonight’s not going to be one of his best nights, if he follows the recent pattern. But, he’s gotten away with less than stellar showings recently, and with Hammel coming into Philly having struggled recently, I’m going with the Phillies all the way here.
UPSET SPECIALS
Sunday: 1-1 – Wrong on the Reds, who lost in extra innings, but thanks to another strong outing from Barry Zito to lead the Giants over the Phillies, I was able to pick up my only win of an otherwise forgettable day.
San Diego Padres (+138) v. Atlanta Braves (-153)
Pitching Matchup: Tim Stauffer (1-2, 2.57 ERA) v. Javier Vazquez (8-7, 3.01 ERA)
Vazquez comes in 3-0 in his last five starts, but the Braves’ bats have gone silent again, which doesn’t bode well for their hopes tonight. Stauffer is coming off of his first win in nearly three years, but he’s pitched pretty well for the most part in his limited starts this season, and I’m backing him to get his second straight win and the Padres to bag their second straight win over the Braves.
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