Today’s MLB Picks – Saturday, August 1
For all of the latest lines on the games in today’s picks and all of the rest of the day’s action, see our baseball odds page.
MUST SEE MATCHUPS
San Francisco Giants (-143) v. Philadelphia Phillies (+133)
Pitching Matchup: Tim Lincecum (11-3, 2.30 ERA) v. Joe Blanton (7-4, 4.11 ERA)
Blanton was 3-0 with a 1.21 ERA in four July starts, raising his record to 7-4 and dropping his ERA from 5.08 to 4.11 in the process. With the way that the Giants haven’t been hitting, I expect him to have another very good outing. However, you can’t not take Lincecum. He’s 6-1 with a 2.13 ERA in 10 home starts, coming off of a performance in which he struck out a career-high 15 batters in a complete-game win over the Pirates, and has allowed no earned runs in four of his last six home starts.
St. Louis Cardinals (-200) v. Houston Astros (+180)
Pitching Matchup: Chris Carpenter (9-3, 2.19 ERA) v. Wandy Rodriguez (10-6, 2.65 ERA)
Last night’s series opener was a 4-3 nail-biter in favor of the Cardinals, and tonight’s showdown has the makings of a tight, low-scoring game as well, as two of the NL’s best pitchers take the hill in this one.
Both Carpenter and Rodriguez went 4-0 in five July starts (and both also had 36 innings pitched in those five starts), with Carpenter posting a 1.75 ERA and Rodriguez posting an even more miniscule 0.75 ERA.
St. Louis is a pretty solid favorite with Carpenter on the hill tonight, and I can’t say I see the Cardinals losing tonight. However, if you’re looking for an underdog to pick, this is a very, very good option with the way that Rodriguez has been pitching lately.
TODAY’S SURE BETS
Tampa Bay Rays (-300) v. Kansas City Royals (+250)
Pitching Matchup: Jeff Niemann (9-5, 3.81 ERA) v. Bruce Chen (0-5, 6.39 ERA)
Niemann didn’t have his best stuff in his last start, allowing five runs on nine hits in 6.2 innings, but in his previous start against Kansas City on June 3, Niemann had a complete-game, two-hit shutout in a 9-0 Rays win.
Chen hasn’t pitched terribly in his last couple of starts, and he may well have a solid outing tonight. However, this one is Rays all the way.
UPSET SPECIALS
Chicago White Sox (+135) v. New York Yankees (-150)
Pitching Matchup: John Danks (8-7, 3.89 ERA) v. A.J. Burnett (10-4, 3.53 ERA)
Since getting shelled by the Red Sox in early June, Burnett has shown why the Yankees spent big on him in the off-season. In his last eight starts, Burnett is 6-1 with a 1.69 ERA, and in his last start, he allowed only one run and two hits in seven innings in a win over Tampa Bay on Monday.
But I’m going with the White Sox to take a third straight against the Yankees with Danks on the mound. Danks has pitched well for the most part in his last several starts, and the White Sox are high on confidence right now after taking the first two in the series.
New York Mets v. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup: Oliver Perez (2-3, 7.42 ERA) v. Max Scherzer
You never really know what you’re going to get out of Oliver Perez, and there’s a good chance that he’ll wind up with just as many walks as strikeouts tonight.
He’s actually pitched decently since coming back from the disabled list, minus the high amount of walks, so as long as he can stay out of serious trouble, the Mets will be in it.
Scherzer was fantastic last time out, pitching seven shutout innings against Pittsburgh on Sunday, allowing only five hits and striking out eight while walking none.
But prior to Friday night’s loss to the D’Backs, the Mets had warmed up over the last week, winning five of six, and I like them to rebound from last night’s disappointing loss to even the series up.
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