Free Sports Picks – Wednesday, August 19
It appears I should’ve left the bonus picks off of Tuesday’s picks, because they were what kept me from having a perfect day for a second straight day, as the Mariners weren’t able to hold a late lead against the Tigers on the road and Wigan suffered a surprising home defeat to newly-promoted Wolves.
However, I still ended up going 4-0 in my ‘regular’ picks and 4-2 overall, which makes for four straight winning days (with a 13-4 mark in the last four days). Can I make it five in a row? You might consider a couple of today’s picks a little more on the risky side, but I’m confident about my choices, and I’m also confident that you can exercise good judgment when determining which picks deserve more of your bankroll.
We’ve got the latest lines for all of the games picked below in our betting odds section, and as always, good luck and wager responsibly!
MUST SEE MATCHUPS
Los Angeles Dodgers v. St. Louis Cardinals
Pitching Matchup: Clayton Kershaw (8-7, 2.91 ERA) v. Adam Wainwright (14-7, 2.62 ERA)
Kershaw is 0-2 in his last five starts, but he’s gotten poor run support (the Dodgers have scored 12 runs in his last five starts), which has seen a few gems go unrewarded. One of those gems was against the Cardinals on July 28, when he pitched eight shutout innings, allowed only four hits, and struck out seven in a game that the Dodgers lost 3-2 in 15 innings.
That lack of run support plays right into Wainwright’s hands, as he hasn’t allowed more than two earned runs in any of his last 10 starts, which has seen him leap into serious Cy Young contention. Wainwright pitched eight shutout innings in a 10-0 win over the Dodgers on July 28, and I like him to keep his hot run going and become the first pitcher in the majors to reach 15 wins.
Philadelphia Phillies v. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup: Cliff Lee (10-9, 2.86 ERA) v. Dan Haren (12-7, 2.50 ERA)
Lee has more than lived up to his billing thus far in Philadelphia, going 3-0 with a 1.12 ERA in his first three starts with the Phillies. Haren hasn’t pitched particularly well in his last couple of road starts, and even if he does pitch much better than he has recently on the road, I don’t see Arizona’s bats, which managed all of a run and four hits against Pedro Martinez and Jamie Moyer last night, being able to solve Lee enough to deliver a win for the D’Backs.
TODAY’S SURE BETS
Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles
Pitching Matchup: Jeff Niemann (10-5, 3.86 ERA) v. Chris Tillman (1-0, 4.88 ERA)
Niemann is 4-0 with a 1.93 ERA and two shutouts in his last five home starts, and after a few subpar road starts against the Mariners and Angels, I like him to bounce back with another stellar home outing to lead the Rays to a second straight win over their AL East foes.
Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox
Pitching Matchup: Roy Halladay (13-5, 2.65 ERA) v. Clay Buchholz (1-3, 4.45 ERA)
Boston was able to overcome a poor outing by Josh Beckett and ride their bats to a close win over the Blue Jays in last night’s series opener in Toronto, but they won’t have the same good fortune against Halladay. Halladay’s getting back in the groove after some less than stellar showings, and that doesn’t bode well for the Red Sox, who weren’t able to solve Halladay when they faced him exactly a month ago (complete game, six hits, one run, seven strikeouts in a 3-1 win). It also doesn’t bode well that Boston has been shut out in Buchholz’s last two starts. I think you can see where I’m headed here…
UPSET SPECIALS
San Diego Padres v. Chicago Cubs
Pitching Matchup: Mat Latos (4-2, 4.01 ERA) v. Rich Harden (7-7, 4.30 ERA)
Harden has pitched well over his last six starts, but he has only two wins to show for it thanks to poor run support, as the Cubs have scored only 17 runs in those six games (with 11 of those coming in the two wins). They’ve managed only four runs in the first two games in San Diego, and those offensive numbers are more than a little worrying when Latos has pitched well at home (2-1, 2.65 ERA). A sweep will be a pretty big blow to the Cubs’ postseason hopes, but that’s what I foresee.
Dont Agree? Let us Know. We love hearing your thoughts and picks!
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