Free Sports Picks – Tuesday, August 18
A new week, and my mini-roll continues. I notched a perfect 4-0 mark with Monday’s picks, which takes me to 9-2 over the last three days.
Since my soccer picks have come good in the last couple of days, I’m including another soccer pick in today’s picks to go with the usual baseball picks.
Remember, you can check out our betting odds section for the latest lines on the games I pick, and as always, good luck and wager responsibly!
MUST SEE MATCHUPS
Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox
Pitching Matchup: Ricky Romero (10-5, 3.70 ERA) v. Josh Beckett (14-4, 3.10 ERA)
The Red Sox come into this series having lost 13 of 18 road games in the second half, and after losing the AL wild card lead, this is a must-win series for Boston.
Beckett hasn’t pitched particularly well in Toronto for the most part, going 1-2 with a 6.98 ERA in four starts in Toronto. But he comes in 3-0 with 1.61 ERA in his last four starts and 7-1 with a 1.94 in his last 10 starts, and he hasn’t allowed an earned run in his last two road starts.
Romero has been fantastic as a rookie, and he’s 6-3 at home in nine home starts. However, two of those losses have come to the Red Sox, who he’s gone 0-2 with a 9.72 ERA against thus far this season.
Toronto has lost the opener of their last six home series, and with the Red Sox needing a win, I expect Beckett to step up and deliver to take that streak to seven for the Blue Jays.
TODAY’S SURE BETS
Tampa Bay Rays v. Baltimore Orioles
Pitching Matchup: David Price (5-5, 5.13 ERA) v. Jason Berken (2-10, 6.63 ERA)
Price has struggled on the road, but with the exception of one bad start against the Phillies, he’s been excellent at home, going 5-0 with a 1.79 ERA in his other six home starts. Let’s just say I like his chances just a little against a pitcher who’s 2-10 overall and only 1-4 with an 8.48 ERA on the road.
Philadelphia Phillies v. Arizona Diamondbacks
Pitching Matchup: Pedro Martinez (1-0, 5.40 ERA) v. Jon Garland (6-10, 4.28 ERA)
Martinez makes his first home start with his new team tonight against the Diamondbacks, and just like his Phillies debut at Chicago was a winning one, his home debut will be a winning one. Martinez was 3-0 with a 0.67 ERA in four starts against Arizona during his time with the Mets, allowing only two earned runs in 27 innings in those four starts. The Phillies don’t need him to pitch a gem every time out, but we might be in line for one tonight.
UPSET SPECIALS
Pittsburgh Pirates v. Milwaukee Brewers
Pitching Matchup: Ross Ohlendorf (10-8, 4.30 ERA) v. Manny Parra (8-8, 6.44 ERA)
I liked Ohlendorf against the Cubs on Sunday in a game that was rained out, and I’m going to stick with him as he finally gets to take the hill tonight. Besides pitching as well as he has recently, he’s 7-2 with a 3.18 ERA at home this season.
Parra comes in with a 5-0 record in his last seven starts, but that’s more of a product of great run support than great pitching (he has a 6.60 ERA in his last five starts), and his road ERA is four runs higher (7.18) than Ohlendorf‘s home ERA.
For some reason, the Brewers are favored in this one, but as I said, I’m sticking with Ohlendorf and the Pirates.
Bonus Pick #1: Detroit Tigers v. Seattle Mariners – Small play on the road team in this one. Felix Hernandez is 6-0 with a 1.22 ERA in his last eight road starts and 8-1 with a 1.96 ERA on the road this season. He’s also 2-0 with a 2.77 ERA against Detroit this season, and if tonight‘s start goes anything like his previous one in Detroit (7 IP, 6 hits, 1 run, 8 Ks in a 2-1 win on July 22), the M‘s could be in line for a win.
Bonus Pick #2: Wigan Athletic v. Wolverhampton Wanderers – Wigan started their season with an impressive 2-0 win at Aston Villa on Saturday, and I like them to make it two wins in two against newly-promoted Wolves, who fell 2-0 at home to West Ham. Starting with their first Premier League season in 2005/06, Wigan have four wins and two defeats at home in August league matches, with both of those defeats coming against Chelsea, so you should feel confident about backing Roberto Martinez‘s side.
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