Free Sports Picks – Saturday, August 22
Well, every day can’t be a winning day, and yesterday wasn’t one for me. I went 1-3 with Friday’s picks, with San Diego’s Clayton Richard and the Padres bullpen to thank for avoiding being on the same kind of 4-0 shutout that the Cardinals were on the receiving end of last night at PETCO Park.
But I’m looking to get back on track today, and I feel good about each of today’s picks.
Since it’s Saturday, we’ve got plenty of soccer action going on around the world, so I’ve included a soccer pick. I’m sure some of the regular readers might be curious as to why I don’t post picks on preseason football, but if I don’t bet on it (and I don’t bet on preseason football), I won’t put it in my picks. The games I put in my picks are all games that I wager on at my sportsbook(s), so I win when you win and lose when you lose.
Hopefully you’re up and around early to make sure you get your wagers in before you miss out on some of the afternoon action (or the European soccer matches that start in the AM here in the U.S.), and if you want to check the latest lines on all of the action, whether it’s baseball, soccer, or preseason football, head over to our betting odds section. And as always, good luck and wager responsibly!
MUST SEE MATCHUPS
COLORADO ROCKIES v. San Francisco Giants (8:10 P.M. ET)
Pitching Matchup: Jorge De La Rosa (11-8, 4.58 ERA) v. Joe Martinez (3-1, 4.76 ERA)
After losing the opener last night, the Rockies will look to regain their two-game lead in the NL wild card standings with De La Rosa on the hill. A big part of his 8-1 run over the last couple of months has been the improvement of fortunes at home, where he’s 6-0 in his last six starts. One of those six starts came against San Francisco, when he allowed only two runs on seven hits and struck out seven in 7.1 innings in an 8-2 win on July 25.
A win isn’t an automatic, even if he is facing a rookie. Martinez is 2-0 in his two road starts, and while he’s pitched well enough to get the two wins, it’s the run support that’s been notable. The Giants have had their issues at the plate this season, but they’ve scored 10 runs in each of his two road starts, and with Coors Field being a hitters’ park if there ever was one, the same kind of support is all too possible.
That being said, I’m going with De La Rosa and the Rockies to even the series up. The Rockies have averaged more than eight runs in his last six home starts after averaging barely over three in his first six, so Martinez may well be in need of the Giants.
TAMPA BAY RAYS v. Texas Rangers (7:08 P.M. ET)
Pitching Matchup: Matt Garza (7-8, 3.73 ERA) v. Tommy Hunter (6-2, 2.64 ERA)
Garza comes in with a record under .500, but he’s been done in by poor run support in more than a couple of starts this season. One of the few starts that he’s had that can be characterized as bad came against the Rangers on the road last month, when he allowed five runs on seven hits in five innings in a 5-2 loss, but he’s pitched well at home all season long.
He’ll need to pitch well again with Hunter on the mound for the Rangers. Hunter is 2-0 with an 0.87 ERA in three road starts, and in his last road start, he pitched 7.2 shutout innings in a 5-0 win over the Indians last week. The opposition has scored only four or more runs in only three of Hunter’s 10 starts, and the Rangers are even 2-1 in those three games.
For what it’s worth, the Rays have a winning record this season in games following wins in which they scored five or more runs, while the Rangers have a losing record in games following losses in which they scored three runs or less (last night’s score was 5-3 Rays). That would favor the Rays, but even though I’m not a huge follower of every trend in the book, I’m going with the Rays simply because I think Garza will be able to shut down the Rangers like Scott Kazmir did last night and lead the Rays to a second straight win.
TODAY’S SURE BETS
New York Mets v. PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES (7:10 P.M. ET)
Pitching Matchup: Tim Redding (1-4, 6.53 ERA) v. J.A. Happ (9-2, 2.66 ERA)
The Mets had to throw someone into the rotation after releasing Livan Hernandez, and that unlucky soul is Redding, who’s 1-3 with a 6.99 ERA as a starter this season and 1-2 with a 7.17 ERA in 12 home appearances (four starts). He also comes into this start not having pitched well at all in mop-up duty in a couple of games this week, allowing three runs on four hits in an inning against the Giants on Sunday and three runs on four hits (with two of those hits being homers) against the Braves on Wednesday.
Happ, who could be on his way to the NL Rookie of the Year award, has had few issues at home or on the road this season. One of his worst starts came at Citi Field (5.1 IP, 6 hits, 4 runs allowed), but that was his lone ‘bad’ start on the road. He’s 5-1 with a 1.77 ERA on the road, and he’s coming out of an outing at Atlanta in which he walked six but allowed only one run on three hits in 7.1 innings in a 4-1 win over the Braves.
The Mets had a nice win last night, but I don’t see them making it two in a row. No surprise to see the streaky Cole Hamels struggle and lose again to fall below .500 this season, but I don’t see Happ having the same issues.
WASHINGTON NATIONALS v. Milwaukee Brewers (7:05 P.M. ET)
Pitching Matchup: John Lannan v. Mike Burns (3-4, 5.36 ERA)
Lannan has struggled in his last couple of starts, but he’s 5-1 with a 1.98 ERA at home this season, and 12 of his 13 home starts this season have been quality starts, with the other one being just a third of an inning from being one.
By contrast, Burns is 0-3 with a 10.30 ERA in three road starts this season, and if Lannan can shut the Brewers down like he has almost every other team that he’s faced at home this season, it won’t bode well for Burns and the Brewers’ chances to win a second straight against the Nats. I’m backing Washington all the way in this one.
UPSET SPECIALS
STADE RENNES v. Marseille (French Ligue 1, 3:00 P.M. ET)
These two had a cracking showdown at Rennes in the opening match of last season, with Marseille taking a 3-1 halftime lead only to see Rennes level the match on an own goal in the 89th minute.
Along with the draw against Marseille, Rennes earned points at home against five of the six sides ahead of them in the table last season, winning against Lyon (3rd), Lille (5th), and Paris Saint-Germain (6th), and drawing against Marseille (2nd) and Toulouse (4th). It’s far from a guarantee, but I like Rennes’ chances to pick up three big points at home against Marseille today.
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