Today’s MLB Picks – Sunday, July 19
For the latest odds right on up ’til game time, check out our baseball odds section.
MUST-SEE MATCHUP
Toronto Blue Jays v. Boston Red Sox
Pitching Matchup: Roy Halladay (10-3, 2.85 ERA) v. Jon Lester (8-6, 3.67 ERA)
How many more starts does Halladay have left as a Blue Jay? He may be down to his last two home starts in Toronto, and depending on how quickly the team looks to get him dealt (if they do deal him, that is), this one might actually be his last one.
A lot hasn’t gone right for the Blue Jays in the last month-plus, and the team has actually lost in each of Halladay’s last four starts. He’s run into some trouble in his last two starts, which came against potent Yankees and Rays lineups, and whether or not it’s a product of him being distracted by the potential trade talk, you can’t expect him to have too many non-stellar outings in a row.
Lester is on an absolute roll after starting his season 3-5 with a 6.07 ERA in his first 10 starts. In his last eight starts, he’s 5-1 with a 1.49 ERA and 69 strikeouts (with only 14 walks) in 54.2 innings.
I prefer offense in any sport, but I’m certainly looking forward to an exciting pitcher’s duel in this one.
TODAY’S SURE BETS
Atlanta Braves v. New York Mets
Pitching Matchup: Javier Vazquez (6-7, 2.95 ERA) v. Fernando Nieve (3-3, 3.03 ERA)
After winning three straight starts, Nieve has dropped his last three, and I don’t see the losing streak coming to an end today.
The Braves’ bats haven’t always backed up Vazquez’s efforts this season, and he’s actually 2-5 at home this season, which includes a defeat at the hands of the Mets on May 4, in which he allowed six runs on seven hits (three of them being home runs) in a 6-4 loss.
But even though the Braves fell to Johan Santana on Saturday in a defeat in which they scored only a single run after plating 11 on Friday night, I’ve got no doubts about Atlanta coming out victorious and taking three of four against the Mets to start the second half.
UPSET SPECIALS
New York Yankees (-140) v. Detroit Tigers (+120)
Pitching Matchup: Joba Chamberlain (4-2, 4.25 ERA) v. Edwin Jackson (7-4, 2.52 ERA)
Chamberlain hasn’t had his best stuff in his last three starts, as he’s given up 27 hits and 16 runs (10 earned) in only 13.1 innings, and though the Yankee bats can negate shaky pitching efforts pretty often, runs will likely be at a premium against Jackson.
Jackson has been fantastic all season, with 14 quality starts in 18 starts this season, and he’s needed to have great stuff recently, as the Tigers have scored only 33 runs in the last 10 games he’s started. He pitched six shutout innings against the Yankees earlier this season, but thanks to the bullpen allowing 10 runs in the 7th, Detroit lost that game 11-0.
I like the Tigers to salvage the final one in this series, but if it comes down to the Tigers’ bullpen, I might be sweating a little.
Cincinnati Reds (+110) v. Milwaukee Brewers (-130)
Pitching Matchup: Johnny Cueto (8-6, 3.62 ERA) v. Yovani Gallardo (8-7, 3.22 ERA)
After an excellent start to the season, Cueto has cooled off mightily in the last month. He did toss six shutout innings against the Diamondbacks three weeks ago, but that’s the only one of his last five starts in which he hasn’t struggled.
Gallardo’s also struggled in his last couple of starts, giving up four runs in five innings against St. Louis and five in five innings against the Dodgers. All told, he’s 0-3 in his last three starts and 2-5 in his last seven, which has seen his record go from 6-2 to 8-7. Run support has been during this stretch, especially recently, with the Brewers getting shut out in two of his last three starts.
We’ve got two top young pitchers and stars of the future going in this one, and hopefully they’ll both overcome their recent struggles and showcase their best. Both are due for a great start, but I like Cueto and the Reds to take this one and earn a split in the four-game set with their NL Central rivals.
Pittsburgh Pirates v. San Francisco Giants
Pitching Matchup: Zach Duke (8-8, 3.29 ERA) v. Matt Cain (10-2, 2.38 ERA)
The Pirates have started the second half impressively, taking two in a row from the NL wild card-leading Giants.
As unlikely as it would seem that one of the worst teams in the NL would sweep one of the best, I’m looking for it to happen. Duke may be 8-8 this season, and he may be 1-4 in his last five starts, but he’s been the victim of poor run support in four of those starts.
Cain exited his last start early, going only 1.2 innings against San Diego before a line drive to the elbow knocked him out of the game. He’s good to go for today, and I’m looking for him to have a nice outing.
But the Giants have scored all of two runs in his last two road starts, and they’ve managed only one run in 23 innings in the first two games. Anemic bats + stingy pitcher = series sweep for the Pirates.
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