The Baluga Theorem
I played a hand recently that got me thinking about “The Baluga Theorem” in poker. It states:
“You should strongly re-evaluate the strength of one-pair hands in the face of a raise on the turn.”
This theorem came from a very successful NL hold ‘em player and poster on the 2+2 forums BalugaWhale. According the the BalugaWhale theorem, we should strongly reconsider the strength of our pair due to this turn raise, and we should be looking to fold the majority of the time in this spot.
Here is an example of a hand that I played recently where this Theorem probably should have factored in my turn decision:
Poker Stars $0.25/$0.50 No Limit Hold’em – 8 players
UTG: $16.40
UTG+1: $20.65
MP1: $10.00
MP2: $59.95
CO: $72.05
Hero (BTN): $54.95
SB: $16.50
BB: $10.00
Pre Flop: ($0.75) Hero is BTN with A A
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $0.50, 1 fold, MP2 raises to $1.50, 1 fold, Hero raises to $4, 3 folds, MP2 calls $2.50
I’ve got pocket Aces on the button and a player from MP has raised. I re-raise and am just called.
Flop: ($9.25) 5 Q 5 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $5, MP2 calls $5
This is a good flop for me. I’ve got two pair. I make a little over a half pot sized bet hoping that my opponent will read this as weak and maybe will try to re-raise me. He just calls. I’m now putting him on a queen or a pair like 88 or 99 and he wants to see what I am going to do on the turn.
Turn: ($19.25) 6 (2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero bets $14, MP2 raises to $28, Hero raises to $45.50, MP2 raises to $50.95 all in, Hero calls $0.45 all in
Another blank. I bet out again and am min-raised. Alarm bells start to go off in my head. I am now putting him squarely on pocket queens for a flopped full house but I decide that I can’t fold. I re-raise all-in because all the money is going to go in anyway and I am snap called.
River: ($111.15) 3 (2 players – 2 are all in)
Final Pot: $111.15
MP2 shows Q Q (a full house, Queens full of Fives)
Hero mucks A A
MP2 wins $108.15
Now this wasn’t a one pair hand(I did have two pair with the two fives on board), but I was right with my thinking on his hand. I just couldn’t pull the trigger and fold. This was a really tough situation and many players will think that I was right and that it was just a cooler and there was no way that I could fold. I just don’t think so. I should have folded.
Dont Agree? Let us Know. We love hearing your thoughts and picks!
Loading ...
