MLB SATURDAY
Interleague play continues this weekend and after yesterdays bizarre finish to the Yankees-Mets game, I expect we are in store for some more interesting outcomes. I am almost glad NHL is over after yesterdays disastrous performance by the Red wings, I look forward to concentrating this summer on fewer sports. Baseball is all about finding value and two games today offer some fascinating match ups. I agree with Griffdogs point in his blog about the Phillies and Red Sox match up deserving as much notoriety as the subway series. So lets take a look at both series for Saturday.
After an mind boggling loss in Game 1 of this edition of the Subway Series, the Mets send recently recalled Fernando Nieve (0-0, 0.00 ERA) to the mound for his first start of the season opposite Yankees veteran southpaw Andy Pettitte (6-2, 4.22).
The Mets took the lead Friday night in the eighth inning off Mariano Rivera and appeared to have the game won when closer Francisco Rodriguez got Yankees’ slugger Alex Rodriguez to pop up with two outs and two on. But Mets’ second baseman Luis Castillo dropped the pop up in short right field, allowing both runners to score and the Yankees to escape with a 9-8 victory.
I am a big fan of using statfox in baseball and the numbers don’t look good for the Mets. The Mets have now lost seven of their last 10 and six of their last eight on the highway. Jerry Manuel’s club is 4-2 in its last six games in American League parks but the Mets are just 1-4 in their last five against lefties.
The Yankees numbers look much better as they are The Yankees are now a tremendous 13-4 at home in the last 17, 20-9 overall and 56-22 when hosting National League squads, and 9-2 against right-handed pitching.
The Yankees have now won three of four in the Subway Series, and they are 8-2 in Pettitte’s last 10 starts against the Mets and 4-1 when he faces them in Yankee Stadium.
I am not as impressed with Nieves numbers as Nieve hasn’t started a game since 2006 when he was with the Astros and his only action this season came a week ago when he pitched two scoreless innings out of the bullpen against the Nationals. He went 3-0 with a 3.70 ERA in four starts at Triple-A Buffalo.
Pettitte is 3-1 at home and the Yankees have won five of his last six outings overall, including Monday when he beat the Rays.
You have to go with statfox and the Yankees in this one.
NY Mets 31-28 (Road: 13-17) 4:10pm ET
NY Yankees 35-26 (Home: 19-11) TV: FOX
NYM: F. Nieve (0-0, 0.00)
NYY: A. Pettitte (6-2, 4.22)
Boston just keeps right on winning and they seem to me unstoppable right now but todays match up is interesting. The Red Sox will try to run their winning streak to five when they send Daisuke Matsuzaka (1-4, 7.33 ERA) to the mound at Citizens Bank Park against the Phillies and young left-hander Antonio Bastardo (2-0, 2.45).
Boston overcame a blown save in the ninth inning and beat the Phillies 6-3 in 13 innings on Friday night in the series opener. The Red Sox have now won three straight over Philadelphia and 12 of the last 14 against the Phillies dating back to 2004.
So do we go with statfox on this one too? Lets take a look at some more stats. The Red Sox are 9-2 in their last 11 games overall and they have now won five straight on the highway. They’ve also dominated interleague play, currently on runs of 54-18 overall. 54-18!
The problem is Matsuzaka is just 1-2 in his last three outings with a 5.17 ERA and he’s got a 7.36 ERA this season on the highway. The Rangers knocked him around Sunday, scoring five runs on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings of a 6-3 win at Fenway Park.
Bastardo has been fantastic in his first two career starts, holding the Padres to one run on four hits in six innings in a 10-5 win on June 2 and then limiting the Dodgers to two runs in five innings of a 7-2 win on Sunday, both on the road.
This one is tough to call, I would normally have a lean on the Phillies but I am not betting against the Red Sox right now. This one should be a great one to just sit back and watch. Utilize MLB’s TV package online for this one, its a must for anyone wagering on Baseball.
Boston 37-24 (Road: 16-16) 7:05pm ET
Philadelphia 35-24 (Home: 12-15) TV: NESN, WPHL
BOS: D. Matsuzaka (1-4, 7.33)
PHI: A. Bastardo (2-0, 2.45)
Have a great weekend
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