Major league Baseball and Major League Soccer predictions
I have actually been doing pretty well in soccer and baseball this week and doing very average in the playoffs which is not the standard so I am going adjust and go pretty heavy on some soccer and baseball picks today. Soccer is such a tough sport for me to win at because even he greatest teams can draw and books have asian handicaps but not for every game. Draws tend to really kill a bankroll so, like in baseball, I look for value in soccer by trying top play play low juice games or games at a -pk, finding +even wagers with dogs or looking for good over/under chances. I am really nursing my bankroll right now for the playoffs so I will be playing these games with about 2-5% of my bankroll. Most books tend to advocate a 1-25 of your bankroll but if your bankroll is under 500$ you may as well just not even wager if you are wagering if you are wagering 5$ a game with the time it takes to handicap. I like using Kelly and I tend to stick to the 2-5% range but if I like a game I will adjust my numbers and look for +even wagering opportunities.
LA Angels 18-16 (Road: 6-8) 4:10pm ET
Texas 21-14 (Home: 12-6) TV: FOX
LAA: J. Lackey (0-0, NA)
TEX: V. Padilla (2-2, 4.97)
I am really a numbers person when it comes to baseball and primarily I like to look at stats. Today offers a great pitching match up as John Lackey gets his first start this year.
Lackey went 7-2 with a 3.23 ERA in 12 road starts last season, but he’s just 10-10 with a 5.73 ERA in 27 career starts against the Rangers (5-5, 6.00 ERA in 14 starts in Texas). Last year, he faced the Rangers four times, going 1-2 with a 9.31 ERA. Looking at Padillas numbers,he has been awesome in his last three starts, going 1-1 with a 1.71 ERA (four earned runs allowed in 21 innings), including Monday’s 7-1 victory over the White Sox . This one is tough as both teams are playing great ball. Los Angeles is playing solid ball, going 9-2 in its last 11 games, including three straight road wins, and it is 6-1 in its last seven against right-handed starters. I have to go with the red hot Rangers in this one, Lackey has been off for along time but he is certainly capable of shutting any team down.
Rangers -110 risking 22 to win 20
Cincinnati 20-15 (Road: 13-6) 10:05pm ET
San Diego 14-22 (Home: 9-6) TV: none
CIN: E. Volquez (4-2, 4.40)
SD: J. Geer (0-1, 5.14)
This is primarily a play against the Padres and I like Volquez alot. The Padres haven’t won consecutive games since April 16-18 when they won three in a row and are 5-19 in their last 24 games. Edinson Volquez seems to be back in good form as well.
reds -120 risking 24 to win 20
Boston 21-15 (Road: 8-11) 10:10pm ET
Seattle 17-19 (Home: 8-7) TV: None
BOS: J. Beckett (3-2, 6.42)
SEA: G. Olson (0-0, 2.57)
Beckett certainly has not been the pitcher of past years but I still like Boston in this one. Seattle just seems unable to score and the Red Sox have won five of their last 6 games versus the Mariners and have won six of its last 9 in Seattle. Olson has been dismal against Boston as well, the lefty has been 0-4 with a 7.76 ERA in six starts against the Red Sox..
Boston -155 risking 15.50 to win 10
MLS Soccer
This really promises to be a great match up, Toronto FC hasn’t lost in the last month, and the Chicago Fire are the only remaining unbeaten team in MLS. I love the Toronto crowds and the fact that this game is a coin flip I will take Toronto at pk any day of the week. Both teams have seen their share of draws, the Fire will be looking for a victory to snap a league-record streak of five consecutive draws and Toronto is coming off back-to-back ties.
toronto pk -120 risking 24 to win 20
My play on Real Salt Lake is simple ,the home field advantage they have and the trouble teams have playing there. This is a very good Salt Lake team that will be in the race at the end of the year.
Real Salt Lake (–0.5) -120 risking 24 to win 20
Seattle should be undefeated this year and they are coming off a rather poor showing against LA but they are light years ahead of Dallas. This Dallas home game means nothing because the stands will be mostly empty anyway, and Seattle needs to pick up some points here to keep up with Chivas
Seattle +105 pk risking 50 to win 50
Have a great weekend
Cheers
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