The day I have been waiting for.The NBA playoffs begin
I have been waiting for this day for weeks, really ever since the NCAA tournament. NCAA and NBA have traditionally been two of my best moneymakers around tournament and playoff time. Of course, instead of kicking off the tournament with a full bankroll, I make some stupid bets on hockey and baseball and go into the playoffs 130 dollars down. This is one of my worst attributes when it comes to handicapping, the constant need for action. You could not ask for a better weekend of games with the NBA and Nadal on clay and I go and bet sports that are traditionally hard to master. I happened to take two overs in a NHL playoff that has seen a slew of unders. Brilliant. LOL. To compound that mistake I happen to jump on the always tough to handicap MLB. If you scan the forums like I do for picks and service threads with the picks of touts, you would be shocked at how few people make money or at least post winning records in hockey.
On to today. First off I wanted begin by posting some interesting insights I found on unders and home court advantage in the NBA playoffs. It used to be common knowledge that unders were the definite play as teams began to play defense in the playoffs. This was a prevailing and profitable school of thought for many years, until the oddsmakers caught up with the trend and adjusted the lines and offenses started catching up. But last year’s postseason results suggest defense and the unders were coming back in full force.
“For about an eight-year span or longer, the NBA playoffs totals were a slam dunk,” said Las Vegas oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro of the Lucky’s Race & Sportsbook outfit. “You could bet every total under and take home at least 60 percent winners, from the first game through the NBA Finals.
“After years of getting hammered on these totals, we adjusted … now you have to wonder if we over-adjusted.”
Oddsmakers such as Vaccaro were thrilled to see the over/under results even out in recent years. In the past five postseasons, the under is 219-195 for a 52.8 winning percentage that the books can live with.
However, that record was bolstered by last year’s 50-35 record for the under bettors, led by the defense-minded NBA champion Boston Celtics. Playoff scoring also was down 10 points per game from the regular-season average of 199.8 to 189.7.
The 58.8 percent win rate for unders teetered on dangerous territory for the books after they had seen a significant respite from such losses. The under was just 169-160 over the four previous postseasons combined.
“Everything is cyclical in sports betting … it all comes around, and we can overanalyze it or write about it until doomsday,” Vaccaro said.
Heading into this postseason, the team with the league’s best record, the Cleveland Cavaliers, led the league in the scoring defense (91.1 points) and field-goal percentage defense (43 percent). The defending champion Celtics are right behind, ranking second in both categories.
Even so, Vaccaro said he wasn’t too concerned about the possibility of another defense-heavy NBA playoffs. This is partly because, on the other side of the ledger, stands teams such as the Western Conference’s top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers, who led the league in scoring for most of the year before finishing third at 106.9 points per game.
Teams such as the Lakers help the over/under results even out, as well as drawing two-way action on the totals for each game. The public gives heavy action on the over in games involving the Lakers and other popular teams. The volume of bets from these bettors can’t be taken for granted, Vaccaro said.
“This is where the art comes in a little more than the science,” Vaccaro said. “You always have to play to your fan base. There are some intangibles that come into play, especially in Nevada, where you have a captive audience.
“The guy that comes in to bet his parlay is going to take the Lakers and over tied to the Cavaliers and the over. We’re willing to give up that bet for the opportunity to have a little space on the other side.”
In other words, the sports books would rather lose to the tourists nad the recreatinal wagerer than to the sharps , which is why guys like Vaccaro and fellow oddsmakers won’t hesitate to significantly lower an NBA playoff total if it will reduce their liability on the under.
“The guy who comes in to parlay the Lakers and over, he doesn’t care if the total is 207 or 217 … he’s still betting it over,” Vaccaro said.
Last year’s results to show this point to be true.. In the Eastern Conference finals that pitted Boston against the defensive-oriented Detroit Pistons, the under was 4-2 for the series. Against the Lakers in the NBA Finals, the record was 3-3.
Of course, for every adjustment that comes from oddsmakers there’s another that comes from professional handicappers. Steve Merril of Covers Experts says there’s still value to be found in NBA playoff lines, even though it’s not as easy as simply betting all the unders.
“There are still plenty of opportunities to profit in the NBA playoffs — on both sides and totals — but you have to treat each series and each game separately,” Merril said.
“I particularly like to play reversals after an extremely high-scoring or low-scoring game. The public and oddsmakers normally over-adjust the total for the next game, and there is value going the other way, especially if the previous game had unusually high or low shooting percentages.”
Basically to sum it up, watch for unders with your traditionally defensive minded teams like the celtics and cavs ,but the tourists and recreational bettor will still be wagering on the overs during the Lakers games and watch for over adjustments by the books after a low scoring game.
Another brilliant observation that I didn’t heed, unders are coming in left and right in the NHL. watch for books to have o/u 5 or even 4.5 soon on alot of games.
My picks for the day are my favorites of the year. You have Nadal on clay, and the Celtics at home and the Cavs at home, but this still means you are laying about -200 in juice on a parlay so I added a fourth game to a few parlays. I hope I can be as successful as I was with my parlays in the NCAA tournament, in which I basically doubled my bankroll with my Moneyline parlays. If I can just stay away from baseball for awhile I hope this playoff will be a prosperous one.
04/18/2009 @ 09:35 AM NBA [702] BOSTON GM1 -445
04/18/2009 @ 12:05 PM NBA [704] CLEVELAND GM1 -1100
04/18/2009 @ 06:30 AM MU [4004] RAFAEL NADAL -1000
risking 100 to win 46.96
04/18/2009 @ 09:35 AM NBA BOSTON GM1 -445
04/18/2009 @ 12:05 PM NBA CLEVELAND GM1 -1100
04/18/2009 @ 06:30 AM [4004] RAFAEL NADAL -1000
(ANDY MURRAY vrs RAFAEL NADAL)
04/18/2009 @ 07:00 AM SOCCER [9226] ASTON VILLA PK-400
risking 30.00 to win 25.11
04/18/2009 @ 09:35 AM NBA [702] BOSTON GM1 -445
04/18/2009 @ 12:05 PM NBA CLEVELAND GM1 -1100
04/18/2009 @ 03:05 PM NHL DET GM2 -270
04/18/2009 @ 06:30 AM [4004] RAFAEL NADAL -1000
RISKING 50 TO WIN 50.32
04/18/2009 @ 09:35 AM NBA BOSTON GM1 -450
04/18/2009 @ 12:05 PM NBA CLEVELAND GM1 -1100
04/18/2009 @ 06:30 AM RAFAEL NADAL -1000
04/18/2009 @ 07:00 AM SOC [CELTIC GLASGOW -350
RISKING 20.00 TO WIN 17.71
Hedge at Halftime
Boston looks lost witout Garnett. I think Boston comes back to win it but I dont want to risk going down with The lakers and Orlando on deck tomorrow.
04/18/2009 NBA [2701] 2H CHICAGO GM1 +7.5-110
risking 75 to win 68.18
adding a play in hockey detroit red wings in regulation
STRAIGHT BET
04/18/2009 @ 03:05 PM [11090] DET GM2 -160
risking 65.04 to win 40.6
parlay
04/18/2009 @ 3:05PM detroit gm2 -270
04/18/2009 @ 4:05PM boston red sox -270
risking 75 to win 65
MY RECORD
TEASERS 5-0 + $105.16
PARLAYS 8-3 + $402.85
STRAIGHT WAGERS 10-11 -$37
HOCKEY 1-4 -$67
TENNIS 1-1 NO PROFIT OR LOSS
BASEBALL 0-1 -$33
HORSES 1-0 NO PROFIT OR LOSS
OVERALL 29-20 +$369
Cheers
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