Sweet Sixteen Picks
I am heading into the sweet sixteen with a nice bankroll after a great tournament so far. Of course this week I had to go and blow my winnings trying to figure out baseball preseason but Notre Dame has set me back in black. Baseball is one of my great loves and I have been to spring training twice after listening to my dad rave about watching the games in Florida. Baseball is such a tough sport to wager on and really involves a lot of stats and math to figure out value. MLB has a very long season and even the best teams will lose a lot of games so finding value and not laying a lot of juice is crucial. Which makes this time of year with the NCAA tournament and NBA and NHL playoffs coming up such great time to make money.
I am playing with house money for the most part tonight after a great start and I really love a lot of games tonight. I was looking at my record posted on here and I am really doing well in parlays and teasers and grinding it out with straight wagers. When I first started wagering with offshore books years ago I used to place a lot of parlays because they pay so well and for me, they make it a lot more fun to watch the games. I want Pitt to win tonight but I don’t want to have to sweat a back door cover by Xavier. So I am going to parlay a lot of games tonight anD have one or two straight wagers.
Obviously parlays and teasers are not smart moves in the long run, the math is obviously against you. It is tough enough winning one game much less trying to win a few games but gambling is all about runs and hot streaks. Some of the most successful handicappers I have seen, on the forums at least in basketball, have used a money-line parlay system. The secret is to make sure you still use good money management.
Tonight Pitt and UConn seem to me the best bets on the board and I really like the Lakers in the NBA. In the NBA the Pistons really have the injuries mounting . Rasheed Wallace has missed 8 games and Rip Hamilton has missed 5 games. Both are doubtful tonight, and the Pistons just don’t have the offense to hang with the Lakers. Strangely enough, L.A. has lost 9 straight at Detroit dating back to 2002, plus the fact that they are battling Cleveland for the best record in the NBA makes this one seems to be a good game to parlay Pitt and UConn with tonight.
What can you say about Pitt and UConn that hasn’t already been said. If either lose tonight it would be a major shock but I am worried about laying these amount of points against a very good defensive team in Purdue and a very athletic and high scoring team like Xavier. Pitt struggled against Oklahoma State and Xavier is a very good team so the parlays seem to be the best value tonight.
I am going to make a smaller wager on Memphis in a straight wager, and the Duke game is an absolute toss up in my opinion but I lean towards Duke and may make a smaller wager on the Blue Devils tonight.
Good luck tonight with the games, it should be a great weekend.
Cheers
I am going to get my bets in before the 7:10 tipoff and come back in here and have some write ups in a few.
Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NCAA Basketball
Pittsburgh 3/26/2009 7:25 PM – (EST)
Money Line -300 for Game
Select #2 : NCAA Basketball
Connecticut 3/26/2009 7:05 PM – (EST)
Money Line -300 for Game
Amount : Risking 125.00 To Win 97.22 USD
Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NCAA Basketball
Memphis 3/26/2009 9:35 PM – (EST)
Money Line -210 for Game
Select #2 : NCAA Basketball
Connecticut 3/26/2009 7:05 PM – (EST)
Money Line -320 for Game
Amount : Risking 75.00 To Win 70.31 USD
Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers 3/26/2009 7:35 PM – (EST)
Money Line -400 for Game
Select #2 : NCAA Basketball
Connecticut 3/26/2009 7:05 PM – (EST)
Money Line -320 for Game
Amount : Risking 75.00 To Win 48.05 USD
Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NBA Basketball
Los Angeles Lakers 3/26/2009 7:35 PM – (EST)
Money Line -400 for Game
Select #2 : NCAA Basketball
Pittsburgh 3/26/2009 7:25 PM – (EST)
Money Line -320 for Game
Amount : Risking 80.00 To Win 51.25 USD
I bought the hook on the Duke game and 1.5 on the Memphis game
Wager type : Straight Bet
Sport : NCAA Basketball
Selection : Duke 3/26/2009 9:55 PM – (EST)
Spread -2 -120 for Game
Amount : Risking 42.00 To Win 35.00 USD
Wager type : Straight Bet
Sport : NCAA Basketball
Selection : Memphis 3/26/2009 9:35 PM – (EST)
Spread -3 -145 for Game
Amount : Risking 72.50 To Win 50.00 USD
I just happened to wake up and look at this score. I am taking a crazy chance and trying to hedge but I should be alright roi wise after my wins with Pitt,Uconn and the Lakers. Memphis is in such a weak division. I made a big mistake on this one it seems. I may hedge Duke as well. I should have stuck with my UConn, Lakers, and Pitt wagers.
Risking 165.00 150.00 Basketball – 811 Missouri +7½ -110 for 2nd Half
Another poor wager I should have not made, Duke may end up winning this one but there were too many good cappers on villanova. A poor choice on my part based on Dukes 3 point shooting and ,who knows, they may turn it around and start shooting well but Villanova matches up well with Duke. I wouldn’t be surprised to see another ACC team may go down. We will see.
MY RECORD
TEASERS 5-0 + $105.16
PARLAYS 7-1 + $237.63
STRAIGHT WAGERS 8-7 + $70.60
HOCKEY 0-1 -$35
TENNIS 1-1 NO PROFIT OR LOSS
OVERALL 21-9 + $377.79
PM - (EST)
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