Ncaa Sunday
It was a pretty good day yesterday which could have been a fantastic day if I had not tried to hedge a few games at half. One of the most interesting things I have read in books and forums over the years is how many gamblers who use math and probability concepts like kelly and other advantage gambling tools, rarely even know about the teams they are wagering on. It seems odd but so much of gambling is based around beating the closing line. This is why having a couple of sports books to line shop is so important.
My problem yesterday is that I actually had some time off work to watch games, I was at home writing on a script and watching a game at the same time which is fine, but I usually do better once I get my wager down and leave it alone. Overall a pretty good day though so lets get to Sundays action.
I am going to post this real quick before the game kicks off and then come back in and post my other picks. In early action Syracuse is a tough Big East team who should match up really well against a PAC 10 team like Arizona State. If Syracuse can shoot better than they did against Stephen Austin , their size and their zone should give the Sun devils a lot of problems. I am going with the Big East and the strength of Syracuse in this one.
Wager type : Straight Bet
Sport : NCAA Basketball
Selection : Syracuse 3/22/2009 12:10 PM – (EST)
Spread -2 -120 for Game
Amount : Risking 60.00 To Win 50.00 USD
The fourth-seeded Xavier Musketeers and the 12th-seeded Wisconsin Badgers are set to square off Sunday in a battle between two very different styles of play. The winner of this contest moves on to play either Pittsburgh or eighth-seeded Oklahoma State. Wisconsin barely got by Florida State in overtime but there is no doubt this is a well coached big 10 team who can play a suffocating defense.
The Xavier Musketeers won the Atlantic 10 regular season title, and ended up being upset in the conference tournament by Temple. They finished the regular season an impressive 26-7 with some formidable wins including triumphs over Lsu, Missouri and Memphis. This team can beat anybody in the country when they are shooting the ball well, but I am going to tease this game with and take Wisconsin and the points. I do feel like Xavier is the better team but I think any time you can get a good defense like Wisconsin who can slow the game down, you should take the points.
Wager type : Teaser
Teaser : SP 9 pts – 13pts
Select #1 : NCAA Basketball for Game
Pittsburgh 3/22/2009 2:50 PM – (EST)
Spread pk for Game
Select #2 : NCAA Basketball for Game
Louisville 3/22/2009 5:20 PM – (EST)
Spread -2½ for Game
Select #3 : NCAA Basketball for Game
Kansas 3/22/2009 2:30 PM – (EST)
Spread +1 for Game
Select #4 : NCAA Basketball for Game
Wisconsin 3/22/2009 2:20 PM – (EST)
Spread +12 for Game
Amount : Risking 32.50 To Win 25.00 USD
My biggest bet of the day is actually surprising for me. I have lost tons of money on Arizona this year and at times during the regular season this team seemed to have played with no heart. At least it appeared that way to me, but Arizona’s performance against Utah was really the team I thought they should have been all year.
The Wildcats went 54.5 percent in shooting and 20- of-28 at the foul line, as they dominated Utah on Friday. Nic Wise was fantastic in the win, getting 29 points on 10-of-19 field goals.
I have seen Cleveland State actually quite a lot this year through streaming video of their games on the Horizon league web site and the team I saw against Wake Forest was a shock to say the least. If Cleveland State plays like they did against the demon deacons then I am in trouble but I am going with the better conference and the stronger schedule.
I am buying the hook like I did with Syracuse game.
Wager type : Straight Bet
Sport : NCAA Basketball
Selection : Arizona 3/22/2009 2:40 PM – (EST)
Spread -2 -125 for Game
Amount : Risking 75.00 To Win 60.00 USD
The last game is my favorite, I love how the USC Trojans are playing right now. The 10th-seeded USC Trojans are really peaking at the right time and they go up against second-seeded Michigan State Spartans in Midwest Regional second-round action at the Metrodome. The team that that wins this game will earn the right to meet either Kansas or Dayton.
The Trojans punched their ticket to the Big Dance by winning their first-ever Pac-10 Tournament title, and seem to be surging at the right time. I have lost a ton of money on the Spartans this year and feel like they are overrated especially on a neutral court. I have to go with the the in form and talented Trojans in this one. I am going to take the Trojans and the points and tease them up in a four team teaser as well
Wager type : Straight Bet(s)
Select #1 : NCAA Basketball
University of Southern Cal 3/22/2009 5:00 PM – (EST)
Spread +4 -110 for Game
Risking 22.00 To Win 20.00 USD
Wager type : Teaser
Teaser : SP 9 pts – 13pts
Select #1 : NCAA Basketball for Game
Pittsburgh 3/22/2009 2:50 PM – (EST)
Spread pk for Game
Select #2 : NCAA Basketball for Game
Louisville 3/22/2009 5:20 PM – (EST)
Spread -2½ for Game
Select #3 : NCAA Basketball for Game
Kansas 3/22/2009 2:30 PM – (EST)
Spread +1 for Game
Select #4 : NCAA Basketball for Game
University of Southern Cal 3/22/2009 5:00 PM – (EST)
Spread +13 for Game
Amount : Risking 45.50 To Win 35.00 USD
My last wagers will be a parlay with Pitt and Kansas and I am going to place some small wagers on Indian wells in tennis. I believe Nadal will get his revenge today and I am really impressed with Ivanovic and her training in the off season. She has always done well at Indian wells and has a decent chance of an upsetting Zvonereva today.
Wager type : Straight Bet(s)
Select #1 : ATP Matches Tennis
Rafael Nadal 3/22/2009 4:00 PM – (EST)
Spread -1½ -125 for Game
Risking 31.25 To Win 25.00 USD
Select #2 : WTA Matches Tennis
Ana Ivanovic 3/22/2009 3:00 PM – (EST)
Money Line +135 for Game
Risking 25.00 To Win 33.75 USD
Wager type : Teaser
Teaser : SP 9 pts – 13pts
Select #1 : NCAA Basketball for Game
Pittsburgh 3/22/2009 2:50 PM – (EST)
Spread pk for Game
Select #2 : NCAA Basketball for Game
Louisville 3/22/2009 5:20 PM – (EST)
Spread -2½ for Game
Select #3 : NCAA Basketball for Game
Kansas 3/22/2009 2:30 PM – (EST)
Spread +1 for Game
Select #4 : NCAA Basketball for Game
Marquette 3/22/2009 4:50 PM – (EST)
Spread +12 for Game
Amount : Risking 26.00 To Win 20.00 USD
Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NBA Basketball
New Orleans Hornets 3/22/2009 7:05 PM – (EST)
Money Line -420 for Game
Select #2 : NCAA Basketball
Pittsburgh 3/22/2009 2:50 PM – (EST)
Money Line -460 for Game
Select #3 : NCAA Basketball
Kansas 3/22/2009 2:30 PM – (EST)
Money Line -370 for Game
Amount : Risking 100.00 To Win 91.46 USD
MY RECORD
I will update later today with actual units and dollar figures, I have two teasers open from yesterday with only Pittsburgh left to grade so I should be in the black heading into todays games.
NOTES 5;44 PM E.S.T.-
Looking like a fantastic day if Louisville can cover -2.5,New orleans wins in the NBA and hopefully USC can keep it close. I would have swept the board so far if not for Ivanovic.
ADDING PARLAY
Wager type : Parlay
Select #1 : NBA Basketball
Cleveland Cavaliers 3/22/2009 6:05 PM – (EST)
Money Line -260 for Game
Select #2 : NBA Basketball
New Orleans Hornets 3/22/2009 7:05 PM – (EST)
Money Line -420 for Game
Amount : Risking 75.00 To Win 53.57 USD
PARLAYS 5-1 +92.60
STRAIGHT WAGERS {BASKETBALL} 8-6 - + $74.87
HOCKEY 0-1 -$35
TEASERS 2-0 + 26.16
TENNIS 0-1 – $25
OVERALL - + $133.63
CHEERS
Wager typ
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Some very nice picks… The NCAA tournament is playing out very nicely with favorites winning the games (although not covering spreads in all cases… but those teasers and moneyline picks were very smart bets.