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Can You Bet On It? Picking the Home Team?
Betting on sports there are two things people notice right away. Where the game is being played
and who is the favorite. Some bettors bet solely home teams - here is how they would have done
in the 2005 NFL season. You can also see our guide on betting on the favorite
All stats are based on 2005 Data and the Author makes no guarantee as to its accuracy.
Teams playing at home are popular bets. The roar of the crowd, the familiarity of the field, the lack
of travel all are popular arguments. Human tendencies lead us to believe the home team has a better
chance of winning. And this may be true.
However, the pointspread for each game figures for more than the statistics. Human sentiment is
also factored in. Depending which teams are playing - and where - the spread can be skewed by 3 points -
or more! Remember the linesmakers create odds trying to get equal money on both sides of a wager not give
each time an equal chance to win.
In 2005, the results were not good for home teams.
In the National Football League, if you bet all home teams you would have only won
43% against the spread. Eve more convincing is there was o advantage if you bet a favorite
or underdog playing at home. Both these only won 43% of the time.
| 2005 NFL Home / Away Stats |
| Home Teams |
|
126 - 168 (43%) |
| Home Favorites |
|
89 - 118 (43%) |
| Home Dogs |
|
36 - 47 (43%) |
| Away Teams |
|
168 - 126 (57%) |
| Away Favorites |
|
47 - 36 (57%) |
| Away Dogs |
|
118 - 89 (57%) |
College football proved more equitable when looking at Home/Away team outcomes against the spread.
Remember these stats incorproate all of Division IA as best attempted. There are many conferences and
not every team is a power house. In fact, there are over 100 schools - over 50 games per week in
these statistics. And still, the home team is not a good bet. But, with this data being much closer than the pros, betting
all underdogs wouldn't be profitble either. Do you research and make smart bets on the games which help
you find an edge... Most importantly, dont be afraid to bet on the visitors!
| 2005 NCAA Div 1 College Football Home / Away Stats |
| Home Teams |
|
255 - 273 (48%) |
| Home Favorites |
|
166 - 182 (48%) |
| Home Dogs |
|
88 - 88 (50%) |
| Away Teams |
|
273 - 255 (52%) |
| Away Favorites |
|
88 - 88 (50%) |
| Away Dogs |
|
182 - 166 (52%) |
So next time you look to make a bet, consider the other side ofthe fence. I wouldn't consider home
field advantage a real positive unless you are betting the moneyline. When everything average out,
against the spread, home teams are not winners often enough to leave you feeling green with cash.
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